Sam Avellone
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After a 1-1 result in Week 7, we are 3-1 on our Friday best bets in the last 2 weeks. With another big slate looming, let’s turn our attention to Week 8 of the college football regular season. Friday night’s card consists of 3 power conference matchups and a fun Mountain West matchup between 2 teams seemingly going in different directions. Out of these 4 games, I picked my 2 college football best bets for tonight and will analyze each pick. Ahead of the massive Saturday slate on deck, don’t forget to check out all of our college football picks for Week 8.
College football Week 8 Friday best bets
Florida State Seminoles vs Duke Blue Devils Under 42.5 (-110)
Coming off a mutual bye week, Florida State (1-5) and Duke (5-1) should be well-rested and ready for this matchup. Florida State has never lost to Duke in football, and I’m sure this team doesn’t want to be the first to do so. However, Duke is favored in this game and my power ratings agree, as I make Duke about a 3.5-point favorite. Without much perceived value on the spread, I’m going to target the total and take the under.
This matchup consists of 2 struggling offenses that are outside the top 105 in PPA in the last 5 weeks while putting up less than 3.6 points per scoring opportunity (excluding garbage time). Florida State and Duke are also outside the top 90 in offensive success rate since Week 3. Defensively, Duke has been strong with a top-25 rating in PPA in the last 5 weeks. Florida State has not been as fortunate, but the Seminoles have been strong at finishing drives defensively. Opponents have scored just 2.81 points per scoring opportunity against Florida State outside of garbage time since Week 3, despite the ‘Noles being 100th in total opportunities allowed. This game could be ugly, so plug your nose when you lock this one in.
Read our full Florida State vs Duke prediction
Nevada Wolf Pack ML over Fresno State Bulldogs (+126)
Despite a 4-point loss to San Jose State 2 weeks ago, Nevada has found a rhythm offensively in its last 3 games. The Wolf Pack scored at least 30 points in each contest since being shut out at Minnesota, largely due to their excellent rushing attack that combined for 863 yards in those 3 games. Nevada is 18th in rush rate since Week 3 with top-12 marks in rush PPA, rush success rate and rush explosiveness. Meanwhile, the offensive line is top 10 in power success, stuff rate and line yards in that same time frame. In other words, Nevada’s offensive line is playing great, and the Wolf Pack rushing game is as strong as any in the country.
Fresno State’s defense is in for a tough test. The Bulldogs are 69th in opposing rush PPA outside of garbage time in the last 5 weeks, while their defensive front is 68th in stuff rate. Offensively, Fresno is 117th in PPA since Week 3 and has struggled to score efficiently when it reaches the green zone. The Bulldogs average just 3.41 points per scoring opportunity since mid-September, which isn’t going to cut it when playing against Nevada – a top-25 team in finishing drives and offensive PPA.
See our college football predictions for all of Saturday’s big games, including Georgia vs Texas!
