Sam Avellone
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Week 7 was full of underdog wins and covers, but none was bigger than Tennessee’s home win over Alabama. The Volunteers closed as high as 9-point underdogs but managed to beat the Crimson Tide straight up on a knuckle-ball field goal as time expired. Other underdogs such as Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Kentucky, and Stanford all managed to win outright, while Iowa State, Duke, Memphis, Indiana, and Oklahoma State lost outright but were winners against the spread.
After a 2-1 result in Week 7’s underdog picks, we are back this week with 3 more underdogs that could be in line to win outright. Let’s check them out.
Lock in our College Football picks for all of the big games in Week 8
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Week 8 best underdog bets
Duke Blue Devils +9 (-110) over Miami
The Hurricanes have yet to beat a Power 5 opponent by margin and have lost their last two home games outright, including a double-digit loss to Middle Tennessee State as 25.5 point favorites. In fact, Miami is just 3-3 straight up and 1-5 ATS this year, with its lone cover coming against Bethune Cookman in Week 1. Miami’s struggles against the spread can be tied back to its inability to run the ball efficiently, as the Hurricanes rank 80th in yards per carry and 88th in EPA per rush. With a weak running game, the Hurricanes struggle to maintain possession at times and struggle to score efficiently. As such, they rank 73rd in drive efficiency and 97th in touchdown rate.
The Hurricanes have a very good defensive line that ranks in the top 25 opportunity rate and sack rate, but Duke is equipped with an equally as good offensive line that ranks in the top 15 in opportunity rate and average line yards. Behind its offensive line, Duke has a reliable rushing attack with a mobile quarterback and 3 running backs that average at least 5.0 yards per carry. Duke also is great at taking care of the ball, ranking in the top 15 in turnovers lost and turnover margin. With a reliable running attack and few turnovers, Duke is able to possess the ball longer than its opponents and keep games close – as shown by the fact that Duke has yet to lose by more than 8 points. This is a tough spot for them after their rivalry game against North Carolina, but considering Miami’s inability to win by margin, the Blue Devils should be able to keep this one close.
Check out our staff’s Week 8 best bets!
Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 (-110) over Wisconsin
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Back to the well with the Boilermakers, who helped us cash a ticket in the Week 6 best underdogs article. Since 2019, Purdue is the most profitable underdog on the road in conference play with an ATS record of 8-1. The Boilermakers already have 2 outright wins as underdogs on the road against Big Ten opponents this year, and find themselves on a 4 game winning streak coming into this matchup against the Wisconsin Badgers – an opponent whom the Boilermakers have struggled to beat over the years. In fact, Purdue has not beaten Wisconsin since 2003 when Kyle Orton was the quarterback, so expect a motivated effort from the Boilermakers on Saturday.
Luckily for Purdue, this season’s version of Wisconsin football is not like previous versions. The Badgers have already lost 4 games outright, including home losses to Washington State and Illinois, as well as road losses to Ohio State and lowly Michigan State last week. Their struggles stem from an unbalanced offense with shaky quarterback play mixed with a defense that is not up to the level we are used to seeing from Wisconsin. The Badgers have a lethal running back in Braelon Allen, but they are only averaging 4.54 yards per carry as a team (52nd) because of a shaky offensive line that ranks 54th in stuff rate, 67th in average line yards per carry, 79th in power success rate and 113th in opportunity rate. Purdue’s rush defense has been fairly good this year as it ranks 19th in EPA per rush and 20th in yards per attempt, while the defensive line ranks 25th in power success rate, 26th in opportunity rate, and 42nd in average line yards per carry.
The Wisconsin secondary will have its hands full with the Boilermakers’s offense, as Aidan O’Connell ranks 15th in passing yards this season despite missing a game. The Badgers rank 51st in passing yards allowed per game and 54th in opposing passing efficiency, while having recorded just 12 sacks through 7 games – so O’Connell should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Charlie Jones, Payne Durham, or any of the other talented Purdue pass-catchers. The Boilermakers have also found success on the ground in recent weeks having rushed for 160 yards or more in 3 out of their last 4 games. With a perceived offensive advantage for Purdue, I am riding the train with the Boilermakers in a spot in which they tend to perform.
If you like these picks, you are going to love our College Football Week 8 mega parlay!
South Carolina Gamecocks +3 (-105) over Texas A&M
The Gamecocks are at their best when they are able to find space for running back MarShawn Lloyd to run. The sophomore running back has rushed for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns over his last 3 games, but his performance in Week 6 was especially impressive on the road against a Kentucky defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. Lloyd ran for 110 yards on 22 carries with 1 touchdown while adding 31 receiving yards on 2 catches against the Wildcats and will be fresh coming into this matchup coming off a bye week. The Aggies have been bad against the run and it starts with poor play on the defensive line as this unit ranks outside the top 100 in average line yards per carry and opportunity rate. Furthermore, the Texas A&M defensive line also ranks 99th in stuff rate, so it has not been successful in stopping opposing running backs before they make it past the line of scrimmage. As a result of the poor play up front, the Aggies rank 111th in opposing yards per carry and 115th in rushing yards allowed per game as a whole. South Carolina’s offensive line has been surprisingly decent thus far, ranking 48th in opportunity rate and 52nd in average line yards per carry – so Lloyd should be able to succeed in this matchup.
If Lloyd is able to find his running lanes, it takes pressure off quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler has thrown 8 interceptions through 6 games and has often looked like he is trying to do too much with his new team, but the bye week could help this Gamecock passing attack get on the same page. Even with his interception issues, Rattler still seems to be the better quarterback in this matchup. He is completing over 65% of his passes on the season and over 75% of his passes over the last 3 weeks. Haynes King, on the other hand, has completed just over 58% of his passes with 5 interceptions on 60 less pass attempts than Rattler. King lost his top target in Ainias Smith to injury last month, so he will have his work cut out for him against a Gamecock defense that ranks 17th in passing yards allowed per game and 36th in opposing passing efficiency. Keep in mind, South Carolina’s secondary was banged up earlier this season, so these numbers do not depict how strong Cam Smith, Marcellas Dial, and company really are.
South Carolina seems to be on an upward trajectory after its win on the road at Kentucky before its bye week. Considering Lloyd’s projected effectiveness in this matchup, the Gamecocks should be able to control the ball and have a good chance to beat the Aggies for the first time in this cross-division rivalry.
Be sure to check out our full Texas A&M vs South Carolina predictions
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