Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 6 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with number of intriguing contests on the board.
Saturday’s slate could be the best of the season thus far and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in some of the lesser talked about games on the slate. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
BYU ML (-110)
Penn State +7 (-110)
Florida State ML (+150)
Parlay odds: +811
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay we are going with one toss-up game, one underdog against the spread and one on the money line. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 7 matchups!
BYU ML (-110) over Arkansas
This is a spot that I’ve been targeting since before the season started. BYU is set to host one of the biggest home games for any non-Power 5 team this season, and the Cougars have a real shot to win it. While they are coming off a loss to Notre Dame, they now face a beleaguered Arkansas team at home. The Razorbacks just finished a 3-week stretch against the likes of Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. That’s likely one of the toughest stretches any FBS team will have this fall. Furthermore, this trip out west will be the second consecutive road game (and the third road game in 4 weeks) for Arkansas. If there was ever a perfect time for BYU to catch a weary SEC program, it would be now.
Fortunately for Arkansas, the Razorbacks should have quarterback KJ Jefferson back as the starter this week. However, that doesn’t guarantee a successful day of passing for the Hogs, as they’ve struggled in that department of late. BYU should have the services of its complete wide receiving corps after battling with injuries all season. That should come into play against an Arkansas pass defense that has been downright awful over the last month. This is a fantastic spot for the Cougars and I think they will come through with a victory.
Check out our full Arkansas vs BYU predictions
Penn State +7 (-110) vs Michigan
The betting market is still overrating Michigan despite some glaring holes in its resume this season. To start, the Wolverines’ excellent metrics are largely inflated by their extremely weak schedule to this point. Michigan feasted on Hawaii, UConn and Colorado State in the non-conference before starting Big Ten play with unimpressive wins over Maryland and Iowa. And while the Wolverines beat Indiana by 21 points a week ago, the game was certainly closer than the final score indicated. True freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy has yet to face a quality opponent in his first season, which could be a major issue against a stout defensive unit.
Penn State’s defense is excellent and the metrics back up the eye test. The Nittany Lions are 6th in the nation in defensive net points per drive, 8th in defensive EPA margin and top 10 in opponent EPA per rush. That will be a major factor against a Michigan offense that prides itself on establishing the run. The Wolverines’ gaudy offensive metrics are predicated on dominating at the line of scrimmage. However, if Penn State’s defensive line can hold its own in the trenches, McCarthy will be forced to challenge a lockdown Nittany Lions secondary. On the other side, senior quarterback Sean Clifford has played in plenty of Big Ten rivalry games and I expect him to remain composed enough to keep things close throughout.
Check out our full Penn State vs Michigan predictions
Florida State ML (+150) over Clemson
The market has been moving in the direction of Florida State all week, and it’s easy to see why. The Seminoles are in a great spot at home to turn the tide on a conference foe that’s been getting all of the ACC hype. Furthermore, Florida State’s defeat at the hands NC State last weekend was a bit of a mirage. The ‘Noles gained 7.4 yards per play against a stout NC State defense and out-gained the Wolfpack by nearly 100 yards. In fact, Florida State held a 14-point lead at halftime before a 3rd quarter interception turned the tide. Florida State still ran the ball with terrific efficiency and generated plenty of explosive plays. The Seminoles shut down Devin Leary and NC State’s passing attack, and I expect a similar effort on Saturday.
Clemson’s offensive line has struggled with opposing pass rushes this season, and it won’t get a break against Florida State. The Seminoles defensive metrics aren’t special, but they do get after the quarterback and that pass rush has manifested results against LSU, Louisville and NC State. While Clemson is stronger than those opponents, the Tigers are in the midst of their third road game in 4 contests. It took a lot for Clemson to survive against Wake Forest and the Tigers are facing a much better offense this week than NC State’s struggling group. I like backing Jordan Travis and the ‘Noles at home in what should be a 1-score game.
Be sure to get our college football Week 7 best bets – we have gone 11-3-1 over the past 5 weeks!
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