Sam Avellone
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The Week 7 Saturday slate is loaded with marquee matchups from noon ET until well past midnight with Boise State’s trip to Hawaii, so get ready for an incredibly entertaining day of college football. Like every week, I put together a parlay including some of my favorite picks from the day’s biggest games and will break each leg down for you in this article.
Don’t forget to check out all of our college football picks for this massive Week 7. Let’s get started!
Iowa Hawkeyes ML (-142)
LSU Tigers ML (+136)
Colorado Buffaloes team total Over 26.5 (-115)
College football Week 7 Saturday parlay odds: +651
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Iowa Hawkeyes ML over Washington Huskies (-142)
Fresh off an emotional, field-rush generating win at home over Michigan, the Washington Huskies will have to travel out east for the 2nd time in 3 weeks. Luckily, they won’t have to travel all the way to the east coast on short rest like in Week 5, but they do have to play the Hawkeyes at 11:00 am local time — which equates to 9:00 am on the Huskies’ Pacific Time Zone body clocks. Potentially adding to the difficulty of the travel spot, the Huskies are yet to have a week off. Their bye is next week.
Washington owns a slight defensive advantage in this matchup statistically, but it has not played offenses that rival the levels of Iowa State much less Ohio State — the 2 opponents the Hawkeyes failed to beat. In fact, ESPN grades Iowa’s strength of schedule 9th nationally, while Washington’s ranks 82nd. With such a relatively soft schedule, the Huskies should have better marks defensively against the run. They are outside the top 65 in opposing rush PPA, success rate and explosiveness since Week 2 (excluding garbage time) — which is not going to be a recipe for success against Iowa’s bellcow running back and Big Ten rushing leader Kaleb Johnson. Offensively, the Huskies have failed to finish drives at an efficient rate, as they averaged fewer than 3 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time in the last 5 weeks despite crossing their opponent’s 40-yard line at the 10th-highest rate in that time. Against a defense that is 8th in opposing scoring opportunities allowed since Week 2, Washington is unlikely to have many chances to get into scoring range much less put enough points on the board to force Iowa into a negative game script with more pass attempts — something that is clearly not a strong suit for the Hawkeyes. I favor the home Hawkeyes by 3.5 points in this matchup without factoring in the travel situation for Washington, but I’m going to gravitate to the Iowa money line given the expectation of a low-scoring, low-possession game.
Don’t forget to check out our expert’s Saturday best bets of college football’s Week 7 slate
LSU Tigers ML over Ole Miss Rebels (+136)
Speaking of situational advantages, the LSU Tigers are in one of their own at home on Saturday night under the lights of Death Valley. The Tigers come into this matchup with the Ole Miss Rebels off a bye, while the Rebels face their 2nd consecutive road game, 3rd straight conference game and 7th game in a row overall without a bye. The Rebels managed to bounce back from their loss against Kentucky with a win in South Carolina last week, but the Gamecocks gave that game away pretty early due to poor coaching decisions on 4th downs and turnovers.
I don’t believe the Tigers will make those early mistakes. Even if they do, they are more equipped than the Gamecocks to battle back from deficits — proven by their comeback victory over that very team in Week 3. LSU has a very strong passing attack with Garrett Nussmeier, an elite offensive line and a talented group of wide receivers, and Ole Miss has not played against a passing attack anywhere near the level of LSU’s. Expect the Tigers to test the Rebels deep early and often.
Read our LSU vs Ole Miss game preview for LSU vs Ole Miss
Colorado Buffaloes team total Over 26.5 (-115) vs Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State’s defense has been a bit disappointing this season. The Wildcats are 75th in opposing PPA, 52nd in success rate and 127th in explosiveness allowed in non-garbage time since Week 2 — mostly due to a porous defensive backfield that is outside the top 95th in PPA and explosiveness. That is an area of weakness that Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes can attack offensively. Colorado has the 4th-highest pass rate in the country over the last 5 weeks, and Sanders is known to test opposing defenses deep with his extremely talented trio of wide receivers. He ranks 3rd nationally in big-time throws (15) with just 2 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, and he has thrown for at least 300 yards or 3 touchdowns in all but 1 game this season. He is the exact type of quarterback that should find success against what has been a leaky Kansas State secondary.
The Wildcats play at a much slower pace than the ‘Buffs, but I don’t think that will be enough to stifle Colorado’s offense. Kansas State gave up at least 27 points in both its road games to this point, while Colorado has scored at least 28 points in all but 1 of its home games during head coach Deion Sanders’ tenure.
Looking for action on one of the other marquee matchups of the day? Check out our Texas vs Oklahoma Same Game Parlay with +420 odds!
