Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 6 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it turned out to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable slates in years. The action will only ramp up from here, especially with this week’s mammoth slate on tap, featuring a number of massive games in the Big Ten and SEC. It’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 7 slate with my weekly best bets column. We got back on track with a winning card in Week 6, so let’s keep that momentum going this week!
We’ve got a pair of Big Ten matchups to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a game a bit further down the board that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 7 schedule of games on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions -3 over USC Trojans (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Penn State -4
In last week’s column, I was very high on Minnesota’s chances to keep things close against USC in what was the third game of a brutal stretch of travel for the Trojans. Not only did the Gophers cover the number, but they won outright on a touchdown with under a minute remaining. Now, with USC returning home after making another trek across multiple time zones, the Trojans will take on a rested and ready Penn State side that is a matchup nightmare for Lincoln Riley’s team.
Much like what we saw against Michigan and Minnesota, the recipe for success for the Nittany Lions starts with dominating the game in the trenches. USC has major issues on its offensive line, especially at both tackle positions, which doesn’t bode well against Tom Allen’s defense. The Nittany Lions have one of the better units in the country up front, so don’t expect to see Miller Moss get a ton of protection in this game. All signs point to the USC quarterback taking some big hits in the pocket, which could easily rush his process and result in an untimely turnover or two. That spells trouble for a Trojans offense that has started out slow in each of their last 3 contests.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State should be able to dominate and control the pace of this game with its ground attack on offense. The running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are both averaging over 5 yards per carry, and both of them should feast against a USC defense that is 98th in success rate, 106th in Early Downs EPA and 100th in EPA per rush allowed. Thanks to the new system under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Drew Allar has also improved quite a bit in his second season as a starting quarterback, and much of that improvement has shown up in the box score, as Penn State is 3rd in success rate, 8th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in EPA per dropback. Ultimately, the market is still a bit too high on this USC team after over-inflating the Trojans following a couple of early-season victories that don’t exactly hold up as well in hindsight. Let’s back James Franklin in the favorite role once again.
Read our full Penn State vs USC prediction
Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 over Washington Huskies (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I had Washington as my best bet on the board for the Week 6 slate, and the Huskies didn’t disappoint last Saturday in defeating the Michigan Wolverines in Seattle. After exorcising some of the recent close-game demons and exacting a bit of National Championship revenge at home, Jedd Fisch’s team now has to deal with traveling across multiple time zones once again this week. Kinnick Stadium awaits the Huskies on Saturday, and while the Hawkeyes haven’t quite upgraded their passing offense all that much this season, they still have one of the better rushing attacks in the Big Ten. Iowa is led by dynamic running back Kaleb Johnson on offense, and his skillset should be put to great use against a Washington defense that is a pretty average unit against the run this season. As long as the Hawkeyes can stay ahead of the chains on early downs, this offense should be able to move the ball and chew up a ton of clock on the ground.
Over on the Washington side, there’s no doubt that this Huskies offense is very strong on a down-to-down basis. In fact, Washington is 10th in offensive success rate, 17th in offensive EPA margin and 12th in Early Downs EPA. Where the Huskies run into trouble is finishing drives, ranking outside the top 100 in points per quality possession (College Football Data). That doesn’t bode well against an Iowa defense that allows quality possessions to its opponents at the 2nd-best rate in the country (17.5%) to this point. If Washington can get across the Iowa 40-yard line, there’s still no guarantee that the Huskies will be able to cash in on those possessions. Yes, Iowa did just get smashed by Ohio State, but that point spread was close to 3 touchdowns in that game for a reason. This is a significant step down in class, and the situational spot is absolutely perfect for Iowa here. After all, this is still an early morning body clock game for the Huskies and it’ll be their 7th straight contest before next week’s bye. Big Ten teams are 1-8 straight up when traveling at least 2 time zones this season, and I’ll bet on that trend to continue in this spot.
Read our full Washington vs Iowa prediction
Boise State Broncos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Over 59.5 (-107)
Odds widely available at time of writing. Playable to Over 61.
For my final best bet this weekend, let’s head out west and take the over in this Mountain West clash between Boise State and Hawaii. With a massive matchup against UNLV on deck for Boise State — a contest that could prove to be the Game of the Year in the Group of 5 — all signs point to this road trip out to Hawaii being a massive lookahead spot for the Broncos. And while I certainly lean toward Hawaii at around three touchdowns or better, I think we’ll see plenty of fireworks in this late-night matchup, which leads me toward backing the over.
Boise State’s offense has been humming this season, and it’s no surprise given who the Broncos have in their backfield. Led by the current Heisman favorite and all-world running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are a top 10 rushing offense in essentially every meaningful metric, and quarterback Maddox Madsen has done enough to guide this offense into the top 10 in Early Downs EPA and at 6th in 3rd down success rate. As for the opponent, Hawaii has been up and down this season, particularly away from home. However, this is an offense that traditionally rises to the occasion in home spots as huge underdogs, which fits the criteria for this week. Furthermore, while the Boise State offense is tremendous, there are serious questions to be had about a Broncos defense that is 96th in passing success rate allowed and 111th in 3rd and 4th down success rate. Given that there are real concerns in this Boise State secondary, the Rainbow Warriors should throw the ball early and often, and I expect that’s what we’ll see from veteran quarterback Brayden Schager in this one.
Due to the difficulty of this spot, I do have suspicions that Boise State is going to be a bit flat in the early stages of this game, and where that should show up is on the defensive side of the ball. Timmy Chang’s team should give its best effort in a game that should have more eyeballs on it than a traditional Hawaii game, given that there’s plenty of interest in Jeanty’s growing Heisman resume. As the game goes on, we should see plenty of points in this one, and I certainly don’t mind a wager on either side to clear their team total prop. However, I want the benefit of backing both offenses here, so let’s back a late-night shootout on the island.
Read our full Boise State vs Hawaii prediction
