Caleb Wilfinger
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One of the most anticipated games of the season will take place in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, as the Ohio State Buckeyes will travel to Autzen Stadium for a date with the Oregon Ducks in a showdown between a pair of top 5 teams. This is a tremendous game with a lot on the line for both teams, and I’ve found a trio of legs to pair together for a Same Game Parlay at +650 odds!
You can find our college football picks for tonight and all of Saturday’s biggest matchups, but for now let’s dive into our Ohio State vs Oregon Same Game Parlay picks.
Under 54.5 (-110)
Quinshon Judkins (OSU) Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110)
Tez Johnson (ORE) to score a touchdown (+115)
Iowa vs Ohio State Same Game Parlay odds: +650
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Under 54.5 (-110)
In my estimation there isn’t all that much separating these teams — which has me leaning toward the Oregon side at home catching over a field goal. With that said, I’m most comfortable playing the under on Saturday; this total is a bit too high considering the caliber of defense that we should see in this game.
Ohio State’s defense might be the most talented unit in the country, particularly at the safety position with Caleb Downs’ ability to crash down into the box and blow up some potential explosive runs for Jordan James and this Oregon ground attack. The Buckeyes are 5th in defensive success rate and 1st in EPA margin on defense, which will come in handy against a Ducks offense that wants to generate explosive plays on the ground, much like we saw against Michigan State a week ago. Offensive coordinator Will Stein is all about getting the ball out of Dillion Gabriel’s hands quickly and into the arms of Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart and the rest of the Ducks’ playmakers in space. If Ohio State can consistently make open field tackles, that should limit the explosiveness of this Oregon passing offense.
On the other side, I do expect Chip Kelly to adhere to a run-first gameplan on Saturday, especially since this Ducks defense is 11th in opponent passing success rate and 7th in EPA per dropback. While Ohio State presents matchup problems for any team with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside, it’s also important to remember that this is a massive challenge for quarterback Will Howard, who is undoubtedly playing in the biggest game of his career to this point, and in an extremely hostile environment to boot. This is also the strongest defensive unit that Lanning has had in his Oregon tenure, as his team currently sits at 6th in success rate allowed, 4th in opponent passing success rate and 3rd in passes defended. Ultimately, I have faith in both of these defenses to keep everything in front of them and limit the success of the opposing offense in the red zone.
Read our expert’s full Ohio State vs Oregon predictions
Quinshon Judkins Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
As I said in the write up for the under, this is by far the biggest game of Will Howard’s career to this point. Therefore, I expect Howard to keep the ball out of harms way early and lean on the ground game. That’s where Quinshon Judkins comes in, as the Buckeyes will likely look to matriculate the ball downfield and avoid any costly mistakes in the first half. And even once the playbook gets opened up a bit more, Judkins is one of the best running backs in the nation and should get plenty of opportunities to rip off a chunk run. Oregon did just struggle against Ashton Jeanty (as most defenses would) back in Week 2, so there is proof of concept that Judkins and this Ohio State rushing attack can see success on Saturday. Let’s add this prop to our SGP for some additional value.
Find out our expert’s college football Saturday best bets for today’s action
Tez Johnson (ORE) to score a touchdown (+115)
For our final leg of this Same Game Parlay, let’s go with Oregon wide receiver Tez Johnson to find the end zone for the 6th time this season. Oregon’s top weapon in this offense has already has racked up 43 receptions on the season and he should follow up on his terrific game against Michigan State with another excellent effort in a massive spot. Johnson has recorded 80+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 11 games played, and he also found the end zone 11 times in 13 regular-season games a season ago. While Johnson is going to draw plenty of attention on Saturday, he still has a great shot of finding the end zone on Saturday. This is a matchup where Johnson should draw double-digit targets, particularly if Oregon is in a negative game script, so let’s get to the window with one of the best wideouts in the nation.
