Sam Avellone
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The Saturday slate in Week 7 of the college football season is one that’s been anticipated since the summer. Before we get there, Friday night offers a few interesting matchups that will serve as an appetizer for Saturday’s main course. If you followed along with last week’s college football best bets on Friday, you went 2-0 with me. Let’s maintain that momentum this week with 2 more best bets under the Friday night lights. In addition, make sure you also check out our college football picks for all of Week 7’s biggest matchups, including Texas vs Oklahoma and Ohio State vs Oregon.
UNLV Rebels -18.5 over Utah State Aggies (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a fairly big spread for a conference road game off a disappointing home loss to a power conference opponent, but the Rebels should be able to move the ball at will against this Utah State defense. UNLV has a significant advantage in yards-per-play margin and turnover margin per game, thanks to an efficient down-to-down offense that ranks 18th nationally in PPA since Week 2. Propelled predominantly by its ground game, UNLV is 8th nationally in rush yards per game (251.8) and top 5 in explosive runs of 20 yards or more (14). In the last 2 weeks, much of that rushing success comes from quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams. He has accumulated more than 170 yards on 24 combined carries in 2 starts, with 2 rushing touchdowns to go along with his 6 passing touchdowns against Fresno State and Syracuse.
Williams has not played on the road yet, but I’m not sure that’s going to matter against the Aggie defense. Utah State has given up at least 38 points to every FBS opponent it has played, including 45 points to a Temple offense that averages less than 19 per game. The Aggies are 132nd out 134 FBS teams in defensive PPA since Week 2, yielding 6 scoring opportunities per game and 5.37 points per opportunity in non-garbage time situations. The Rebels should be able to take advantage of these inefficiencies given the fact that they score an average of 5.13 points per opportunity with more than 6 scoring opportunities per game. On the other side of the ball, UNLV’s defense has been prone to mistakes. However, Utah State is 91st in offensive PPA since Week 2 and averages just 2.75 points per trip in the green zone in that time. UNLV should control this game from beginning to end, so I’ll lay the points on the road with the Rebels here.
Read our full UNLV vs Utah State prediction
Arizona State Sun Devils +6.5 over Utah Utes (-110)
Arizona State has been quite a pleasant surprise this season under coach Kenny Dillingham. Following their first conference win as a Big 12 member, the Sun Devils are now 4-1 SU and ATS with at least 30 points scored in each of their wins – which is incredibly impressive considering they reached 30 just once last season. Their offense funnels through their star running back Cameron Skattebo, who leads the Big 12 in PFF’s run grade, missed tackles forced (33) and runs of more than 10 yards (20). Skattebo has reached the end zone 6 times on his 112 attempts, and he also offers upside as a pass-catcher – leading the Big 12 in running back receiving yards. Alongside Skattebo in the backfield, Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has been a dramatic upgrade from the situation the Sun Devils had last year. He has thrown 3 interceptions this year, but just 1 of those was considered a turnover-worthy play per PFF. Leavitt also excels as a runner, accumulating more than 5 yards per carry and 4 touchdowns on his 49 attempts.
The Arizona State offensive line has been very good at limiting havoc and creating space for Skattebo, which leads me to believe the Sun Devils will be able to control the time of possession battle more than expected in a matchup with Utah. The Utes are very good statistically against the run, but they yielded more than 5 yards per rush against Arizona prior to their bye – which is an encouraging sign for Skattebo and the Sun Devils. Clearly, Cam Rising is the biggest difference-maker in this game, and is going to make the start for the Utes for the first time since Week 1. However, can we be confident in his health and ability to finish a football game? How rusty will he be given the layoff? Give me the home underdog in what could be a low-possession game between former Pac-12 conference foes.
Now find out our expert’s college football best bets for Saturday, featuring Penn State vs USC!
