College football Week 7 best underdog bets, picks and predictions: Duke among significant 'dogs who have value

The college football regular season is halfway through now that Week 7 has arrived. As we progress through the season, lines will become sharper as oddsmakers continue to compile data with each week. Finding value will become more difficult, especially on underdogs. That being said, there are still multiple attractive underdogs on the college football betting board this week.

Let’s dive into the best underdog bets for Week 7.

All lines and odds listed on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. 

Week 7 best underdog bets

Kansas Jayhawks +9 (-115) vs Oklahoma 

Rumors are swirling that Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel will return from his concussion this weekend, which may have caused this line to move to -9 from its opening number of -7. In any case, this seems to be too many points considering how poorly Oklahoma’s defense has played of later. In their last 3 games (all losses), the Sooners allowed an average of 48.3 points while scoring just 19.3 themselves. They rank 75th in pass defense efficiency, 122nd in opposing rushing yards per game, 116th in opponent third-down conversion percentage and 117th in opposing yards per game. Now they have to go up against an offense that showed no signs of drop off with its backup quarterback at the helm last week. For reference, the Jayhawks have put up 39.8 points per game while accumulating 440 yards per game. They boast one of the more potent rushing attacks in the country with Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. in the backfield, and they average 213.67 rushing yards per game on 5.91 yards per carry collectively as a team. Their passing attack has been strong, as well, ranking 3rd in EPA per pass and 9th in offensive success rate on passing plays — but it remains to be seen how reliable of a passer backup quarterback Jason Bean will be over multiple weeks with Jalon Daniels out for the foreseeable future. 

A lot will be made of the injury status of both starting quarterbacks leading up to this game. Regardless of who plays, I cannot trust Oklahoma right now. The Sooners are not good enough defensively and I am just not sure where the team will be mentally after a 49-0 beatdown at home at the hands of the rival Texas Longhorns.

Iowa State Cyclones +15.5 (-105) vs Texas 

This could be viewed as a mismatch considering Texas’ body of work this season. However, if there is one thing Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is good at, it’s getting his team to compete every single week. Since the start of Campbell’s second season at Iowa State in 2017, the Cyclones have lost just 2 games by more than 10 points. They are typically very sound defensively under Campbell, and this season is no different; the Cyclones rank 17th in opposing yards per carry, 37th in opposing pass efficiency, 18th in opponents’ drive efficiency and 21st in opponents’ touchdown rate. Furthermore, opponents score just 13.7 points per game against Iowa State’s defense while gaining fewer than5 yards per play and failing to convert third downs more than 70% of the time. The Cyclones are also top 40 in red-zone defense, which could come in handy against a Texas team that has struggled at times with its red-zone efficiency (61st in red zone touchdown rate).

Texas has been potent offensively, but this is a bit of a hangover spot for the Longhorns coming off a 49-0 blowout victory over the aforementioned Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry. With 5 straight ranked opponents on the horizon for the ‘Horns, they could get caught looking past the Cyclones — while Iowa State a bye week on deck next week. Iowa State is a scrappy, well-coached football team with some playmakers on both sides of the ball in running back Jirehl Brock, wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson, defensive lineman Will McDonald IV and linebacker O’Rien Vance — so I like the Cyclones to keep this one close. 

Duke Blue Devils +7 ( -110) vs North Carolina

I do not understand this line. Duke has been a decent football team this year, while North Carolina’s defense has been downright bad. The Blue Devils did lose on the road in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets appear to be trending up after parting ways with former head coach Geoff Collins. 

The Tar Heels rank 87th in opposing yards per carry, 120th in pass defense, 105th in opposing touchdown rate and 111th in opposing drive efficiency. Furthermore, they allow their opponents to score an average of 32 points per game with a red-zone conversion percentage of 89.47. Offensively, Duke is centered around the ground attack. The Blue Devils rank 20th in yards per carry and have 3 running backs who have gained more than 200 yards on at least 30 attempts. While quarterback Riley Leonard is an average passer, he can beat opponents with his legs. Leonard has rushed 50 times for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns to accompany 1,312 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air so far this season. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Devils are holding opponents to 19.7 points per game and 5.53 yards per play, while their defensive line ranks in the top 25 in passing down line yards and stuff rate. I think they have enough defensively to limit the North Carolina.

This game is being played at Duke under the lights with the best Blue Devil football team the school has seen since 2018. I expect Wallace Wade Stadium to be loud and hostile toward the visiting Tar Heels in this rivalry game and I would not be surprised if the Blue Devils won outright. 

We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.