Sam Avellone
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Now that the calendar has flipped to October, the midway point of the college football regular season draws near. Week 6 may not have the premier matchups we are expecting next week, but college football works in weird ways. Upsets happen when you least expect them, and that is especially true on weeks like this. I assembled this week’s college football parlay picks for Saturday with that in mind, in hopes of cashing in big on an upset or 2. Be sure to also check out our college football picks on all of Week 6’s biggest matchups, but for now, let’s get into our Saturday CFB parlay!
South Carolina +9.5 (-115)
Minnesota first-half ML (+210)
Florida ML (+110)
College football parlay odds: +1117
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South Carolina Gamecocks +9.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (-115)
Ole Miss hits the road after an unexpected home loss to Kentucky, hoping to get right before a big date with the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge next week. It’s not going to be that easy for the Rebels, though. South Carolina’s Williams-Brice Stadium is a difficult place to play, and the Gamecocks come into this matchup off a bye with extra time to prepare. They should have plenty of confidence for this matchup considering they convincingly beat the very opponent that defeated the Rebels in Oxford last week, in addition to nearly knocking off LSU the following week – both in the underdog role.
South Carolina’s defense figures to have a decent advantage against an Ole Miss offensive line that struggled against Kentucky, as the Gamecocks are top 20 in havoc generated in non-garbage time and 3rd in pass rush grade per PFF. These defensive attributes helped the Gamecocks win the starting field position battle in previous games, and have provided the offense with a favorable distance to the end zone on multiple occasions. If those trends continue, South Carolina should be in this game until the end.
Read our full Ole Miss vs South Carolina prediction
Minnesota Golden Gophers first-half ML over USC Trojans (+210)
Coming off a straight-up loss at Michigan, the Trojans faced an early deficit at home against Wisconsin before scoring 28 unanswered points in the 2nd half of a 38-21 victory. It was a good bounce-back win for USC, but the Big Ten schedule is about to show the Trojans its teeth – starting this week when they travel to Minnesota to play a Gopher team that nearly beat the Wolverines in the Big House last time out. If it wasn’t for an offside penalty on Minnesota’s onside kick attempt, the Gophers could have had a chance to spring the upset after trailing by 21 late in the game.
Minnesota and USC are nearly even in yards-per-play margin, but the Gophers have been a bit more efficient defensively than the Trojans with better marks in opposing points per game, yards per game, defensive PPA, opposing success rate and opposing explosiveness. Minnesota’s defense has been particularly efficient in the first half at home this season, giving up just 2 first-half touchdowns in 4 home games to this point. If the Gophers replicate those defensive performances in this matchup, they should go into halftime with the lead at the very least. Off a loss against the reigning champs with a desire to earn its first power conference win over a popular brand, I believe Minnesota has a motivational advantage against USC – who may get caught looking ahead to next week’s matchup with Penn State in southern California. Expect a sleepy start from the Trojans.
Find out our expert’s college football best bets for Saturday, featuring a pick from USC vs Minnesota!
Florida Gators ML over UCF Knights (+110)
This is a fascinating in-state matchup between the UCF Knights and the Florida Gators, and the Knights are getting all the love from oddsmakers. Despite their embarrassing loss to Colorado at home in Orlando last week, the Knights are laying 2.5 points on the road at the Swamp in primetime on Saturday night. I disagree with the line, as my power ratings have the Gators as the 2.5-point favorite in this matchup. Coming off a bye, I like Florida even more.
Both of these teams rank around the national average in yards-per-play margin and carry a negative turnover margin per game. However, Florida is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to finishing drives. The Gators average 5.10 points per scoring opportunity, while the Knights score an average of 3.27 points on each of their scoring opportunities. This is especially glaring given the fact that Florida has played a strength of schedule that ESPN ranks 43 spots ahead of UCF’s. With extra rest and maybe a chip on their shoulder as a home underdog against an in-state “little brother,” give me the Gators outright.
Read our full UCF vs Florida prediction
