Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 5 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it didn’t turn out to be the most exciting slate. However, the action should only ramp up from here, especially with next week’s mammoth slate on deck. With Saturday rapidly approaching, it’s time to dive into the Week 5 slate with my weekly best bets column. It was a second straight tough Saturday in Week 5, including a brutal beat in State College, but at least we got there with the Washington State vs Boise State over.
We’ve got a pair of Big Ten matchups to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a game a bit further down the board that I show value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 6 schedule of games on Saturday.
Washington Huskies ML over Michigan Wolverines (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Both of these teams are coming off very different results, but the market wasn’t fooled by what we just saw a week ago. Following an impressive win against USC, the Michigan Wolverines defeated Minnesota 27-24 as double-digit favorites at home. That wasn’t exactly the most impressive result, and it gets even less impressive when diving into the box score. The Gophers out-gained Michigan by 55 yards, held the Wolverines to just 4 yards per play and allowed only 6 points in the second half. It goes without saying that the Wolverines were pretty fortunate to win that game in regulation while failing to register 100 passing yards for the second consecutive week. The same can’t be said for Washington, as the Huskies tallied 521 yards of offense, registered 8 yards per play and out-gained Rutgers by well over 200 yards in a 21-18 loss on the road last Friday. Untimely penalties and multiple missed field goals ultimately did Washington in against the Scarlet Knights, which is part of why I’m comfortable backing the Huskies at home in an excellent spot this week.
I’m lower than the market on Michigan and Washington has outpaced my preseason expectations thus far. Michigan’s offense has been a major issue this season, and while it should still see plenty of success on the ground, I don’t expect the Wolverines to completely dominate the game with their rushing attack the way it would against a vastly inferior opponent. Washington’s defense is 7th in opponent success rate, 6th in passing success rate and 25th in rushing success rate, which is certainly a surprise considering what the team lost from a season ago. The Huskies will also have the advantage of knowing what’s coming, seeing as Michigan quarterback Alex Orji has hardly showed the ability to throw the forward pass to this point. As for the Washington offense, it is led by quarterback Will Rogers — who won’t be intimidated in a conference game of this magnitude. Washington is a top-10 passing offense, and we just saw Miller Moss and USC move the ball with great success against this Michigan defense throughout the second half of their recent game in Ann Arbor. I have confidence in Jedd Fisch’s game plan for this spot, and as long as Rogers plays a clean game, this offense should do enough to cause problems for Wink Martidale’s defense. Lastly, while these 2 programs are in completely different positions than a season ago, this is still a massive revenge spot from last year’s National Championship game — and it is being played in front of what should be a raucous crowd in Seattle. Let’s back the Huskies to exact a bit of revenge at home.
Read our full Michigan vs Washington prediction
Minnesota Golden Gophers +9 vs USC Trojans (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable to Minnesota +8.5
This is one of the best situational spots of the week, and it features another slightly undervalued Big Ten team at home. As I mentioned on the Michigan side of things in the previous writeup, Minnesota was pretty unlucky to not at least have a chance to tie the game and force overtime in Ann Arbor a week ago. In fact, the Gophers even successfully recovered an onside kick to get the ball back down 3 points with under 2 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, but the play was called back due to an incorrect flag on Minnesota (which was later confirmed by conference officials). The Gophers seemed to find something on offense in that second half, and they’ll now get to face a USC team that just played a bruising game in Michigan and followed that up with a second-half comeback victory over Wisconsin at home. Now, the Trojans are heading back out east to face Minnesota with a massive game looming next week against Penn State at home.
We’re expecting wins of 15-20 miles per hour at kickoff, which could be a major blow to USC’s passing game in this one. Minnesota’s defense has been strong against the run and also ranks 3rd in opponent EPA per dropback and 5th in Early Downs EPA, so I expect Miller Moss to operate in obvious passing situations on 3rd down throughout this game – which doesn’t bode well for the Trojans offense. On the other side, I expect Minnesota to play very slowly in this one and completely take the air out of the ball by keeping things on the ground and focusing on limiting the amount of possessions for the USC offense. Lastly, it’s also worth mentioning that USC has not won a game in the Eastern or Central Time Zones since 2012, going 0-9 straight up and 1-8 against the spread over that stretch. Let’s back that trend to continue in a game that could get very weird on Saturday.
Read our full USC vs Minnesota prediction
San Jose State Spartans -6.5 over Nevada Wolfpack (-120)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable to SJSU -7 (-110).
For my final best bet this weekend, let’s head out west and back the San Jose State Spartans laying less than a touchdown against Nevada at Spartan Stadium. There’s a lot to like about this San Jose State team, especially since the Spartans have quietly exceeded oddsmakers expectations in every game this season. Ken Niumatalolo’s group holds a 3-1 record while sitting at 4-0 against the spread following an easy cover against Washington State a few weeks ago. The Spartans were one of my best bets in the column that week, and we’re going back to the well with quarterback Emmett Brown — who leads this offense with 13 touchdowns and well over 1,300 passing yards through four games — and an offense that should be firing on all cylinders coming out of the bye week. It certainly helps that the best player on the field in this game will be wide receiver Nick Nash, who is easily one of the best players in the nation that largely goes unnoticed each week. Nash already has a whopping 8 touchdowns this season and is coming off a tremendous 16-reception effort in that game against Washington State. It goes without saying that Nevada should present less of a challenge for Nash on Saturday.
While I do love the Spartans in this spot, I have to give credit to this Nevada team that is clearly much better than what most expected heading into the season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, this line feels like a bit of an overcorrection on the Wolfpack, while the market hasn’t quite adjusted enough to how good San Jose State is just yet. I’ve extolled the virtues of the Spartans offense, but this is also a defensive unit that is top 40 in EPA per pass and EPA per rush allowed on the season. I wouldn’t expect this struggling Nevada passing offense to have enough in the tank to keep up with the Spartans on Saturday, particularly if the Wolfpack fall behind early on. Let’s lay the number with the home favorite at under a touchdown in this spot.
