Caleb Wilfinger
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While this week doesn’t have a lot of depth to it, the top end matchups should all be fantastic games. As a whole, the week still offers plenty of compelling matchups that will play a part in bowl qualification and conference title races. There are a few spots that stuck out to me from a betting perspective this week, so as we always do, I put three of my favorite underdogs together on my bet slip and targeted the money line for each to give us a 3-leg parlay with a mega payout of +1392 odds! Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Washington State ML (+140)
Missouri ML (+180)
Texas A&M ML (+122)
NCAAF Parlay Odds: +1392
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Washington State ML over UCLA Bruins (+140)
I’ll happily admit that I was more than a little wrong about this Washington State team. The Cougars have done nothing but impress me this season, and Cam Ward has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Ward leads a Cougars passing attack that is 7th in success rate and 10th in EPA per pass per CFB-Graphs, and those eye-popping numbers have come against a couple of solid defenses in Wisconsin and Oregon State. Defenses are simply not going to slow down Washington State through the air, and that shouldn’t change in this contest. As a matter of fact, UCLA’s defense ranks 69th in passing success rate, despite not having played an offense that is anywhere near the Cougars’ level.
As for the host Bruins, I expected UCLA to lose to Utah on the road 2 weeks ago and that’s exactly what happened. Overall, freshman quarterback Dante Moore still has an extremely high ceiling and raises the level of Chip Kelly’s offense as a whole. However, the Bruins passing attack is having a ton of issues at the moment, ranking 115th in EPA per pass and 94th in passing success rate. UCLA is also 74th in early downs EPA so I don’t expect this team to put Washington State’s surprisingly decent defense (37th EPA per pass, 34th EPA per rush) under pressure on a consistent enough basis in order to score on most of their possessions. It’s also not like UCLA has much of a home-field advantage either, so let’s take Washington State to pull off the outright upset.
Check out our full Washington State vs UCLA predictions
Missouri Tigers ML over LSU Tigers (+180)
These are 2 teams trending in entirely different directions, with LSU sputtering and Missouri on the ascent. LSU’s offense has not been the issue, as it is 14th in passing success rate and 5th in rushing success rate with Jayden Daniels at the controls of a dynamic and balanced offense. Instead, it’s actually been the Tigers defense that has been atrocious (107th in passing success rate, 118th in opponent net points per drive). Brian Kelly’s secondary has been picked on by every decent quarterback they’ve played and Missouri is actually 15th in passing success rate and 13th in EPA per pass on offense (CFB-Graphs). The Tigers are a balanced unit, ranking 36th in rush success rate and 20th in early downs EPA, so it’s fair to expect that Brady Cook and company will have consistent success on early downs, putting them in favorable positions all afternoon long.
Situationally, this is one of the worst spots of the week for any team on the card. LSU was supposed to be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff heading into the season, but that ship has already sailed following a defeat at Ole Miss last week in which the Tigers defense surrendered 55 points in its second loss of the season. Not only is the College Football Playoff out of the question for LSU, it’s unlikely that the Tigers will even win the SEC West. I can’t imagine that getting up for a sleepy 11:00 am CT game against Missouri will be easy for this LSU team that has been disappointing by all accounts. Missouri should be the far more motivated team in this spot, and there’s a reason why the line continues to tick down.
Lock in our NCAAF Week 6 best bets — our expert is 9-4 over the past 4 weeks!
Texas A&M ML over Alabama Crimson Tide (+122)
For our final leg of this mega parlay, we’re going with a Texas A&M team that has a terrific opportunity in front of them. The Aggies can absolutely win this game, and it’ll have to start with their strong defense. Texas A&M is 3rd in passing success rate and 9th in rushing success rate, as well as 12th in early downs EPA and 4th in points per quality possession per College Football Data. This means that Alabama’s inconsistent offense will likely be behind the chains often and that won’t help Jalen Milroe as he looks to navigate his first true road game as a starter in the SEC. I’m also concerned about Alabama’s middling offensive line in a game against a defensive front that will be looking to pin their ears back and make the young quarterback uncomfortable in a hostile environment.
On the other side, this Crimson Tide defense is clearly the strength of the team, but I don’t have to worry about backing Max Johnson on the road here. Instead, he’ll be very comfortable in front of a friendly crowd at the helm of an offense that has weapons all over the field. The Aggies are a top 25 passing offense against an Alabama secondary that can get beat over the top, as shown in the loss against Texas. I expect a solid and consistent effort from Johnson at home as Texas A&M should minimize its mistakes and pick up a season-defining victory in a massive game for this program at home.
Read our full Alabama vs Texas A&M predictions
