Sam Avellone
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The college football Week 6 edition of Friday night lights is packed with 4 FBS contests, including 2 power conference matchups, an intriguing non-conference matchup and a battle between 2 of the newest FBS members. Just like every week, I have identified a couple of bets that stand out more than the rest, and will briefly detail those college football picks below. If you’re looking for more action, be sure to check out our experts’ college football best bets for all of our most confident picks of Week 6. Let’s dive in. But for now, let’s get into our top picks for tonight’s slate.
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Houston Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs Under 51.5 (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
This is a matchup of contrasting styles, as the Cougars play at a bottom 20 pace while the Horned Frogs are top 25. Being the home team, some would expect TCU to control the pace in this contest, but I believe that it’s much easier to slow down an uptempo team than it is to speed up an offense that operates slowly and methodically. As such, I played the under in this new Big 12 in-state rivalry.
Not only does Houston play at one of the nation’s slowest paces, but the Cougar offense is extremely inefficient. It ranks outside the top 125 in both PPA (predicted points added) and finishing drives, and the Cougars average just 2.27 points per scoring opportunity. With a top 30 offensive PPA, TCU is much more efficient than Houston, but the Horned Frogs have their own struggles in the green zone. Despite the 4th-most trips into scoring range (excluding garbage time), TCU scores fewer than 3.9 points per opportunity – which is outside the top 80 nationally. The Horned Frogs also struggle to take care of the ball, which could be an issue against a Houston defense that is top 50 in overall PPA while grading above-average against the pass. Yielding fewer than 3.25 points per opposing opportunity, Houston should be able to suppress some of TCU’s scoring — making the under that much more appealing given the Cougars’ slow pace of play and inefficiencies on the offensive end. Playable to 50.5.
Lock in our expert’s Michigan State vs Oregon Same Game Parlay picks for tonight’s HUGE Big Ten matchup
UNLV Rebels -3 first half vs Syracuse Orange (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Syracuse’s cross-country trip to Las Vegas on a short week happens to be the Orange’s first time on the road this season, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time for them given how hot the ‘Rebs have been running. UNLV is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS following its 45-point disparaging of Fresno State last week as only 2.5 point favorites, and the guys in the locker room seem to have rallied around each other after quarterback Matthew Sluka decided to redshirt and transfer because he wasn’t being paid as he felt he was promised. The Rebels didn’t seem to miss Sluka last week against Fresno State, and there is a legitimate argument that current quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams is better suited to lead the offense than Sluka. Like Sluka, Williams is a talented runner. However, Williams seems to be a much more accurate passer albeit a small sample size.
It may not be a sold out crowd in Allegiant Stadium, but it should be a great atmosphere given all of the attention surrounding this program in the last 2 weeks. Not to mention the fact that this is the first time UNLV will host a team from the ACC and just the 2nd time the Rebels have lined up against an ACC representative. Against a Syracuse defense that is outside the top 50 in opposing rush PPA, success rate and explosiveness, the Rebels’ stout rushing attack should propel them to at least a touchdown lead going into halftime against the Orange in their first road game of the season. For what it’s worth, the Rebels have performed much better defensively in the first half than the Orange. UNLV yields less than 6 points per first half against FBS opponents, while Syracuse yields 12 — not including the 14 the Oranger gave up to Holy Cross at home last week. Playable to -4.
Read our full Syracuse Orange vs UNLV Rebels prediction
