Sam Avellone
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Whether you believe or not, October is here – and so is Week 6 of the college football season. Another week means another opportunity to find teams undervalued by oddsmakers in the betting market. Teams such as Illinois, Purdue, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCLA, and Wake Forest earned big conference wins as underdogs last week while others like Auburn, Kentucky, and Missouri covered the spread despite failing to secure the outright win. Even UConn and Georgia Tech secured wins in Week 5 despite being more than 3-touchdown underdogs in their respective matchups.
The Week 6 slate contains a handful of underdogs that appear to have value whether situationally or schematically. Here are 3 that stand out more than the others.
Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Week 6 best underdog bets
Purdue Boilermakers +3 (-110) over Maryland Terrapins
Purdue is in its second straight appearance as a conference road underdog this week after upsetting Minnesota 20-10 in Week 5 when catching double digits. The Boilermakers have been very profitable in this spot as of late, sporting a 7-1 ATS record as conference road underdogs since the start of the 2019 season.
Purdue’s defense ranks 84th in EPA per pass, but the Boilermakers rank 10th in opposing completion percentage and hope to continue forcing turnovers much like in their previous 2 games. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa will have to face a confident bunch in Cam Allen, Chris Jefferson, and the rest of the Purdue secondary – a group that was able to force Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan into 3 interceptions last week on his home field. Tagovailoa and the Terrapins will be a tough test, as they rank 13th in EPA per pass and in the top 20 in offensive success rate. However, with a rushing attack that ranks 96th in EPA per rush, Maryland does not have a reliable ground game to fall back on if its passing attack were to be bothered by the Boilermakers.
Unlike Maryland, Purdue is a bit more balanced offensively – which could be the difference maker in this matchup. The Boilermakers rank in the top 45 in both EPA per rush and EPA per pass, and have shown improvement in the ground game over the last 2 weeks. They rushed for 348 combined yards and 5.52 yards per carry against FAU and Minnesota, so expect the Boilermakers to attack the Maryland defense on the ground to set up Aidan O’Connell and the passing game. Purdue should have success utilizing its newly-found rushing attack against a Maryland defense that ranks 82nd in success rate against the rush and 96th in EPA per rush.
This appears to be a pretty even matchup, but Purdue stands out as the team with the better defense and the more reliable run game. With a healthier O’Connell, the Boilermakers could leave this game with back-to-back Big Ten road wins in their pocket.
Check out our NCAAF Week 6 best bets!
Vanderbilt Commodores +17.5 (-110) over Ole Miss Rebels
Coming off a sloppy performance against Tulsa, the Ole Miss Rebels found themselves in a physical battle with Kentucky in Week 5. The Rebels escaped with a 3-point victory thanks to some costly turnovers by the Wildcats, but they scored just 3 points after halftime and did everything they could to give the game away to Kentucky. It looked eerily similar to what they did against Tulsa in Week 4 when they scored 0 points after halftime and allowed the Golden Hurricane back into the game. Ole Miss’s recent inability to put teams away in the second half is something to monitor as we move deeper into conference play.
Vanderbilt was not as fortunate as Ole Miss in Week 5, as the Commodores were on the wrong end of a 52-point blowout in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Commodores are 3-2 through 5 weeks, which is already an improvement from last year’s 2-10 record. However, they have lost both games against Power 5 opponents with a combined score of 100-28. Despite Vanderbilt’s lopsided results against Power 5 opponents, this still feels like too many points. Whether it is because of quarterback Jaxson Dart’s inefficiencies as a passer or not, the Rebels have run the ball on over 65% of their plays against FBS opponents (7th nationally). They rank 16th in rushing success rate compared to 85th in passing success rate, which depicts just how lackluster their offense has been through the air. While Vanderbillt’s defense has not been good as a whole, its defensive line ranks 4th in power success rate and 39th in stuff rate – meaning the Commodores could find success against the run when Ole Miss is facing 3rd and 4th downs in short yardage situations.
Considering Ole Miss’ second half inefficiencies and its lack of a reliable passing game to take the top off the Vanderbilt defense, I find it hard to lay this many points on the road in conference – no matter the opponent.
Be sure to check out our full Ole Miss Rebels vs Vanderbilt Commodores predictions
Washington State Cougars +13 (-110) vs USC Trojans
The Trojans are a powerhouse offensively, ranking 5th in offensive success rate and averaging over 42 points per game. However, this is a tricky spot for them. There is reason to think USC could be looking ahead past the Cougars this week, as its matchup on the road against the Utah Utes in Week 7 will be massively important in the Pac-12 title race. Washington State is not the type of team to look past, as the Cougars have been better defensively than most thought coming into the season. They are holding FBS opponents to an average of 18.5 points per game, which ranks 20th nationally, and they rank in the top 30 in defensive success rate. Their defense is also in the top 40 in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush, so it will be a scrappy bunch to face the week before what some consider USC’s biggest game of the season.
The Trojans have the best turnover margin in the country, which you could argue is bound to regress at some point. Quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown just 1 interception through 5 games while the Trojans have not lost a fumble despite putting the ball on the ground 6 times. Daiyan Henley and the Washington State defense have forced 5 fumbles and intercepted 5 passes so far this year, so this could be the matchup in which USC commits some turnovers. Washington State has some sneaky value in this spot.
Be sure to check out our full Washington State Cougars vs USC Trojans predictions
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
