Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s slate promises to be no different, as there are a number of intriguing contests on the board.
Saturday’s slate is one of the best of the season thus far and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in some of the lesser talked about games on the slate. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Baylor -2.5 (-110)
Arkansas +17.5 (-115)
Charlotte ML (+130)
Parlay odds: +720
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with one favorite against the spread, one underdog against the spread and one on the money line. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 5 matchups!
Baylor -2.5 (-110) over Oklahoma State
Baylor has proven to have the number of Spencer Sanders and Oklahoma State. While the Cowboys have started the season 3-0, those wins have come against largely poor competition. This will be the first real test of the season for Oklahoma State and it will come on the road in a rematch of last year’s Big 12 championship game. In that game, the Bears stifled the Cowboys’ running game and made Sanders beat them in the pocket. He ultimately was unable to do so and Baylor’s defense won out. I expect a similar scenario to play out on Saturday.
The Bears only allow 16.8 points per game on average this season, and the Bears are rushing for 206 yards per game on offense. This is a recipe for disaster against Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys were gashed on the ground by Central Michigan a few weeks ago. I’m expecting Baylor to win the line-of-scrimmage battle and ultimately win this Big 12 Championship rematch.
Be sure to check out our full Oklahoma State vs Baylor predictions
Arkansas +17.5 (-115) over Alabama
There is a road map for Arkansas to cover this inflated number and stay close with Alabama at home. First off, in Alabama’s game against Texas, Bryce Young was sacked twice and hurried 7 times in Austin. Arkansas’ defense must put up a similar effort on Saturday, especially with its suspect pass defense that has allowed over 300 yards per game through the air. On the flip side, Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has paced this Arkansas offense to a top-15 ranking in passing efficiency. And while Alabama appeared to be a juggernaut on defense in the preseason, there are cracks in that armor that can be exploited, as Texas showed us back in Week 2.
In his 2 seasons at Alabama, Young has struggled at times on the road in big games. Arkansas was able to cover the number on the road a season ago and should be fired up for this matchup considering the disappointing way the Razorbacks lost last week. This is the more battle-tested team that probably would only be catching 14 points if they made a last-second field goal a week ago. Look for the Razorbacks to keep this game within 17 points.
Be sure to check out our full Alabama vs Arkansas predictions
Charlotte ML (+130) over UTEP
As I’ve mentioned previously this season, no player is more important to his team in the Group of 5 than Chris Reynolds, the Charlotte quarterback. Without Reynolds at the helm of the offense, the 49ers looked hapless in blowout losses to Maryland and William & Mary. However, his return in Week 3 reignited the offense en route to a victory over Georgia State as a heavy underdog. When Reynolds was in the game against South Carolina last week, the 49ers were quite competitive. However, after he was injured in the 3rd quarter, things went downhill fast for Charlotte. Despite these results, it appears that the books haven’t caught up with how essential Reynolds is to this team.
Reynolds is set to start on Saturday against a UTEP team that isn’t experiencing the same success as a season ago. The Miners did just pull off an upset against Boise State, but that had more to do with the Broncos’ failures than UTEP’s success. This is still an offense that has serious problems scoring and a secondary that has struggled mightily this season. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup, so I’ll back Charlotte on the money line.
Be sure to get our college football Week 5 best bets – we’ve gone 8-1 over the past 3 weeks!
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