Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it didn’t turn out to be the most exciting slate. However, starting with some blockbuster matchups at the Power 4 and Group of 5 level this week, the action should only ramp up from here. With Saturday rapidly approaching, it’s time to dive into the Week 4 slate with my weekly best bets column. It was a tough Saturday in Week 4, including a couple of tough beats, but at least we had a rocking chair winner get to the window for us with Buffalo (and on the money line!).
We’ve got a couple of high-profile matchups to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a few games a bit further down the board that I show value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 5 schedule of games on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions -17 over Illinois Fighting Illini (-120)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Playable to Penn State -18 (+100).
Through the first month of the season, it looks like James Franklin and this Penn State program is well on its way to qualifying for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. In started in the offseason, as the Nittany Lions were aggressive in changing their approach on offense by hiring offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki away from a Kansas program where he did a lot with much less talent. That move has already yielded terrific results, as this offense is 2nd in passing success rate, 3rd in EPA per pass, 9th in EPA margin and 9th in net points per drive (College Football Insiders). In fact, against West Virginia — Penn State’s biggest game of the season to date — the Nittany Lions were in the 99th percentile in the nation in explosive play rate (Game on Paper). Drew Allar looks exceedingly comfortable within Kotelnicki’s offense and it’s led to tremendous results thus far (8 TDs, 1 INT, 70.7% completion). It’s important to remember that Kotelnicki just saw this same Illinois defense a year ago, when Kansas racked up well over 500 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play in a double-digit victory over the Illini. It’s safe to say that this Penn State team is considerably better than what we saw with Kansas a season ago, so this Illinois defense certainly has its hands full.
On defense, the Nittany Lions haven’t quite been as elite as they were a season ago, but they should be in a great position to succeed at home against an Illini offense that likely won’t be able to run the ball very effectively against a top 15 rush defense. While I’ve been impressed with Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, particularly his performance in a win over Nebraska last week, the Illini do have a +7 turnover margin this season and were extremely fortunate to come out on top over Kansas back in Week 2. If this team wasn’t undefeated, this line is probably much closer to 3 touchdowns than the current number. Lastly, we know that Franklin’s teams excel as big favorites. In fact, Franklin is a whopping 51-27 against the spread (65.4%) for his career when his teams are favored by a touchdown or more. He also holds a record of 43-24-2 (64.2%) when laying double digits. Winning and covering against inferior teams is just something that Franklin has always done, and that should continue here in what should be a raucous White Out-like atmosphere in Beaver Stadium.
Read our full Illinois vs Penn State prediction
UCF Knights team total over 37.5 vs Colorado Buffaloes (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable at that number.
This is one of the best situational spots of the week, and it’s certainly being priced into how the market views this game. Colorado hasn’t exactly been all that impressive this season, and this team should have its hands full on Saturday at the Bounce House, especially given the events of last weekend. The Buffaloes are fresh off a miraculous win at home against Baylor in which the Buffaloes managed to convert a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation, before going on to win the game in overtime on a Bears fumble at the goal line. On the other side, UCF is coming off a bye and will get to stay at home, where the Knights have one of the best home field advantages in the sport. Now, they’ll get a hype spot to host a Colorado team that beat in-state rival Colorado State two weeks ago, and followed that up with an emotional miracle of a win last Saturday. There couldn’t be a better spot to fade this mediocre Buffaloes team, and I intend to take advantage.
Colorado is simply outmatched in the trenches in this matchup (94th in available yards allowed, #84 in 68th in 3rd and 4th down success rate) against a UCF team that is one of the best rushing teams in the nation with RJ Harvey and Peny Boone in the backfield. The Knights are also one of the best defenses against the run in college football this season, so Colorado will likely have to depend on star quarterback Shadeur Sanders to make things happen down the field with his arm once again. And while the Colorado defense looked good against Colorado State, we just saw Sawyer Robertson run all over the Buffaloes a week ago, and the challenge only gets tougher against the 3-headed monster of K.J. Jefferson, Harvey and Boone. A cross-country road trip to Florida following a pair of season-saving victories is not what the doctor ordered at all for Deion Sanders and his team this week.
The Knights should come out focused on both sides of the ball, and if Colorado comes out of the gate a bit sluggish after the high of last week’s win, this one could get ugly in a hurry. Given the opportunity at hand, I don’t expect Gus Malzahn’s team to slow down on offense all game long. While the point spread has moved a couple of points off the open, I still think we’ve got a bit of room to run with the favorite in terms of the team total on Saturday. Let’s go with the Knights to clear 37.5 total points for my best bet on this game.
Read our full Colorado vs UCF prediction
Baylor Bears -2.5 over BYU Cougars (-120)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Playable to Baylor -3 (-110).
Much like I touched on in the Colorado-UCF pick, this is also one of the better spots of the weekend, as we’re getting to back a Baylor team that no one will be interested in betting following that absolute debacle of a loss against Colorado. Head coach Dave Aranda’s job security is being called into question, and for good reason, after the Bears allowed the Buffaloes to complete a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation, before losing in overtime on a fumble at the goal line. The national narrative around the program will likely be that the season is over and team no longer has anything to play for. While last week’s loss could certainly carry over and ultimately ruin the season for this Baylor program, I actually the Bears will get up for this game and rally the troops at home against a pretty overvalued BYU team following a questionable result last Saturday.
On its face, BYU’s 38-9 thumping of Kansas State looked like a very impressive victory in front of a raucous atmosphere in Provo. However, the advanced box score tells a much different story, as Kansas State actually had a 65% postgame win expectancy in this contest despite losing by nearly 30 points (College Football Data). The Wildcats outgained BYU by 126 yards, ran 24 more plays and only punted once, all while being well above the national average in success rate on standard downs. However, Kansas State was minus 3 in the turnover battle and also allowed one of the wilder punt return touchdowns you’ll see all season. There’s no doubt that the BYU defense is much improved from a season ago (22nd in passing success rate, 9th in EPA per dropback, 29th in EPA per rush), but the Cougars are still a work in progress on offense. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff and company are going against a Baylor defense that should be the best unit on the field on Saturday, as the Bears are inside the top 10 in opponent rushing and passing success rate, and a top 20 unit on early downs (College Football Insiders).
On the other side, the Bears offense has looked like a different beast since Sawyer Robinson was inserted in at quarterback, and I’d expect that success to continue in a massive bounce-back spot at home. As long as we don’t have another instance of turnover luck going against us here, it’s hard not to like the unranked team laying a short number at home to an AP Top 25 opponent.
Read our full BYU vs Baylor prediction
Washington State Cougars vs Boise State Broncos over 63.5 (-110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Playable to 65.
Boise State had a chance to make a massive College Football Playoff statement in Week 2 when the Broncos held the lead over Oregon in the 4th quarter in Autzen Stadium. However, that lead was short lived as the Ducks returned a kickoff for a touchdown, got a stop and eventually marched down the field en route to the game-winning field goal as time expired. Since that point, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot. What the Broncos need to do is win, and they’ll have a great chance to build up their resume with a victory over a 4-0 Washington State team, which would be a real feather in the cap for this Boise program. While I don’t have a pick on the side, I think we’ll see plenty of fireworks in this matchup under the lights.
Boise State’s offense has been humming all season. Led by all-world running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are a top 10 rushing offense in essentially every meaningful metric, and quarterback Maddox Madsen has this offense sitting inside the top 10 in early downs EPA and at 17th in 3rd down success rate. As for the visitors, Washington State has gotten off to an impressive start, thanks to quarterback John Mateer and some opportunistic plays from its defense. However, the Cougars lost the box score pretty convincingly to Washington, allowed nearly 7 yards per play to San Jose State and benefited massively from turnover luck against Texas Tech. This is still a team that is 87th in defensive success rate and 93rd in early downs EPA on defense, so I’m pumping the brakes just a bit on the Washington State hype for the time being. What the Cougars should do is throw the ball early and often, as the Broncos have notable concerns in the secondary. So while I don’t see Washington State having as much success on the ground as it has in recent games, Mateer should still see plenty of success through the air. This is a massive game for both programs, and I think we see plenty of points on the blue turf.
