Sam Avellone
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The Ohio State Buckeyes have had it easy so far this season. They steamrolled their non-conference schedule consisting of 2 MAC teams and a Sun Belt team, and even had a bye week mixed in. In theory, things should get more difficult for the Buckeyes when they open their conference schedule on the road in East Lansing on Saturday night, but they are laying as many as 24 points against the Spartans. My power ratings suggest a fair number is Ohio State -25, so there’s not too much value in the spread. Instead, I found a few Ohio State vs Michigan State player props I like and am going to put them in a Same Game Parlay to get some increased odds. Let’s break down each leg, while you can also find out our college football picks for all of Saturday’s big matchups.
Aidan Chiles (MSU) over 0.5 interceptions (-214)
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) over 76.5 receiving yards (-117)
Emeka Egbuka (OSU) to score a touchdown (-105)
Ohio State vs Michigan State Same Game Parlay odds: +440
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Aidan Chiles (MSU) over 0.5 interceptions (-214)
This is not something I would play solo due to the amount of juice, but I am willing to throw this into a parlay given how turnover-prone Aidan Chiles has been. The Oregon State transfer has the most turnover-worthy plays in the country per PFF (11), and 7 of those throws have been picked off. His 7 interceptions make him 1 of the 3 most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the country alongside Jalon Daniels and Jake Garcia, and the Spartans have not played a defense anywhere near the strength of Ohio State’s to this point.
Boston College is the best defense Michigan State has played, but the Eagles are 39th in defensive ppa and 45th in total defense. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are 1st nationally in defensive ppa and 2nd in total defense. Furthermore, they generate havoc at the 2nd-highest rate in the country (excluding garbage time), while none of Michigan State’s previous FBS opponents are inside the top 100 in that metric. Chiles figures to face an uptick in pressure from the Buckeyes, which is likely to force him into multiple errant or ill-advised throws. For what it’s worth, he has thrown 6 interceptions in 40 dropbacks against pressure per PFF.
Read our full Ohio State vs Michigan State prediction, which features a 3-star best bet!
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) over 76.5 receiving yards (-117)
Jeremiah Smith is almost certainly going to be a household name sooner rather than later. The 6’3”, 215 lb true freshman wide receiver has already made a splash with 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 14 receptions through 4 games, which equates to 20.1 yards per catch. His advanced numbers are equally as good, as he leads the team with a 14.4-yard average depth of target, gains 8.4 yards after catch per reception, and accumulates 4.32 yards per route run – which is 7th nationally among qualified wide receivers. On top of that, he has a long reception of at least 45 yards in every game to this point. Smith should be able to continue the trend of long gains against this defense, as the Spartans rank 124th in opposing pass explosiveness (excluding garbage time). It doesn’t hurt that Smith has a decent size advantage over the Michigan State secondary either.
Target our expert’s college football parlay picks for Saturday at +581 odds
Emeka Egbuka (OSU) to score a touchdown (-105)
This number feels pretty low for the Buckeye senior wide receiver. Emeka Egbuka may have just 1 touchdown this season, but he leads the team in targets and is even more productive after the catch than Smith. In fact, 199 of his 266 yards have been after the catch. He lines up in the slot more than 74% of his plays per PFF, which is a positive against a Michigan State defense that has given up 278 yards and 2 touchdowns to inferior (in comparison to Egbuka) slot receivers this season. With 10 touchdowns in 2022 and 3 in 5 games prior to the injury he sustained last season, Egbuka is no stranger to the end zone. Given Michigan State’s propensity to give up big plays through the air and via the slot, don’t be surprised if Egbuka breaks loose and finds the end zone in East Lansing.
