Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 5 is finally here, and with it comes one massive SEC game that features two of the most storied programs in college football. All eyes will be on Tuscaloosa on Saturday as the marquee game of the weekend features a pair of top 5 teams as the Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. This is sure to be a fantastic contest, and should go a long way to determining the SEC and College Football Playoff picture for at least one of these teams. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Georgia vs Alabama predictions.
Georgia to win by 1-10 points (+197)
Under 50.5 (-106)
Georgia vs Alabama Same Game Parlay odds: +466
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as backing Georgia to win by 1-10 actually increases our value since it actually needs two results to occur (Georgia winning and Alabama keeping the game within 10 points or less). Let’s break down our Same Game Parlay for this matchup.
Georgia to win by 1-10 points over Alabama (+197)
I’m getting a little exotic with the side portion in this Same Game Parlay over at FanDuel, as we’ll be parlaying the Georgia money line with Alabama +10.5 on an alternate spread to achieve this first leg. While this leg does require multiple conditions for it to cash, I find it hard to believe that a Georgia victory comes in blowout fashion, particularly with this game priced at under a field goal.
First off, this should be a fantastic game between arguably the 2 best programs (and coaches) in college football. With that said, this is a fantastic spot to back Kirby Smart in a game where his team is a bit undervalued. I would imagine the Smart used the one-point victory at Kentucky and the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship last year as motivational pieces during the bye week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s gathered plenty of bulletin board material this week from the media heading into this massive matchup. Furthermore, while Clemson and Kentucky have their flaws, they certainly present a bigger challenge than any of Alabama’s previous opponents. The Tide have yet to see anywhere near a formidable defense to this point, and I expect their offensive line to be overwhelmed against this massive step up in competition. After all, the Bulldogs have yet to allow a touchdown this season and while Alabama’s offense presents issues on the outside, I’m not sure the Crimson Tide are going to be able to run the ball well enough to sustain consistent success.
On the other side, Georgia’s offense has had its ups and downs so far this season, but I do see the Bulldogs putting together a couple of key scoring drives against an Alabama defense that probably isn’t as great as the numbers would suggest thus far given the level of competition. I do have massive respect for Kalen DeBoer and think he’s a top 5 coach in the sport, but I can’t ignore the discount we’re getting on Georgia here. At the end of the day, Smart is 6-2 against the number off a loss or a win of 10 points or fewer since the start of the 2021 season. Even though Alabama will put up a fight, I’ll take Georgia to win this game on the road.
Under 50.5 (-106)
Alabama’s offense has been pretty boom or bust to this point in the season, which doesn’t bode well against a Georgia defensive unit that does a terrific job of limiting explosive plays, allowing just a pair of 20-yard plays through the first 3 games this season. Alabama has had success limiting explosives as well, yielding just three 20-yards plays over its first 3 games. Both of these defenses have also been very good at finishing drives as well, so I’d expect plenty of possessions in this game that end with a turnover on downs or a field goal attempt.
Both of these teams play at a slower than average pace, which should aide the under as well. Georgia sits in the bottom 15 nationally in plays per game and seconds per play against FBS opponents this season, while Alabama doesn’t play much faster, as the Crimson Tide are 86th in plays per game thorough 3 contests. Assuming that these defenses continue to limit explosives at such a high rate, then the expected pace of this game is likely to keep it under the total, especially now that we’ve cleared 50. As such, let’s target the under in this SEC showdown.
