Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s slate promises to be no different, as there are a number of intriguing contests on the board.
But before we can get to Saturday’s loaded slate, there’s a Friday card to explore. These aren’t the most high-profile games of the weekend, but there are still good spots to find value. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Friday’s action.
UTSA -4 (-105)
Washington -2.5 (-115)
Tulane vs Houston over 54.5 (-114)
Parlay odds: +585
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with two favorites against the spread and an over. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 5 matchups
UTSA -4 (-105) over Middle Tennessee
This is pretty clearly the biggest letdown spot of the week. Middle Tennessee just knocked off Miami on the road as 3-touchdown underdogs, and now returns home for a date with UTSA. This presents the perfect scenario for the Roadrunners to start Conference USA play, while giving us a great sell-high spot for their opponent. The non-conference slate was rife with difficult opposition for UTSA, giving the Roadrunners a brutal 3-game stretch to start the season. With that in mind, UTSA’s 2-2 record is a bit deceiving considering the Roadrunners lost in overtime to Houston — a game they should have won. Now, Frank Harris and company should relax against an overvalued Middle Tennessee team in this spot.
UTSA’s offense is averaging more yards per play and has been more efficient than the Blue Raiders. On paper, Middle Tennessee’s defense has been serviceable, allowing 5 yards per play this season. However, the Blue Raiders stats are likely inflated from taking on Colorado State and FCS Tennessee State. They’ll be going up against a Roadrunners team that clearly has the best quarterback and receiving corps in the conference. UTSA has been an excellent road team under Jeff Traylor, posting a 13-5 against the spread record in its last 18 road games. and a 7-3 mark ATS in its last 10 conference games. I can only look at the Roadrunners here.
Read our complete UTSA vs Middle Tennessee predictions
Washington -2.5 (-115) over UCLA
Both of these teams are undefeated, but the Huskies have undoubtedly looked more impressive in doing so. Washington is blitzing teams, to the tune of a top-10 EPA margin and offensive success rate. The passing game looked especially impressive in wins over Michigan State and Stanford — games where the Huskies scored 39 and 40 points respectively. Washington’s defense is also in the top 50 in opponent success rate.
The Bruins were one bad play call away from dropping their home game to South Alabama in Week 3. They got right against Colorado, but the step up in quality for this week’s game will be enormous. The fact that their defense couldn’t stop the Jaguars’ offense should be a major concern when facing Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., who should be a dark horse Heisman Trophy contender. So while Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing well, UCLA’s offense will need to be executing at an elite level in order to compensate for its defensive shortcomings. With Washington absolutely rolling and UCLA having feasted on a weak schedule, I’ll side with the road favorite in this Pac-12 after-dark matchup.
Check out our complete Washington vs UCLA predictions
Tulane vs Houston over 54.5 (-114)
Each of Houston’s games have easily exceeded this number, and I don’t expect that to change. Tulane’s offense hasn’t been consistent to this point, but the Green Wave had to face an excellent Kansas State defense which impacted their overall season stats. While I wouldn’t expect a track meet necessarily, the over seems comfortable enough to play at this number.
Tulane prefers to play at a fast pace that emphasizes getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. The trouble for the Green Wave comes in pass protection, and Houston loves to rush the passer. Therefore, I’d expect Tulane to throw predominantly short, quick passes to move the ball downfield. On the other side, the Cougars are starting to find some offensive rhythm, and I wouldn’t expect them to have much trouble scoring on this Green Wave defense. This is a Houston team that has scored at least 30 points in each of their games this season, almost all of which came against better defenses. If the Cougars are able to do their part, Tulane will be forced to keep pace in this one. I’d side with this over, as I think we could see 60 points here.
Be sure to get our college football Week 5 best bets – we’ve gone 8-1 over the past 3 weeks!
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