Sam Avellone
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The college football season rolls onto Week 5, and the power conference action starts Friday night with 2 games on the East Coast. Will Miami’s dominant start to the season continue against a Virginia Tech team that many thought would be a dark horse in the ACC? How will Washington fare in its first cross-country journey as a Big Ten member? Our expert has their college football best bets on each of the games. Let’s break them down.
Check out our college football picks for all the big games this weekend!
Miami Hurricanes -10 first half over Virginia Tech Hokies (-115)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Virginia Tech has struggled out of the gate in every game thus far. The Hokies found themselves in a 17-0 hole in Week 1, a 14-0 hole last week against Rutgers and led Marshall and Old Dominion by just 7 combined points at halftime in those respective games. Furthermore, the Hokies are outside the top 100 in first half possession share, scoring an average of just 8.5 points prior to halftime. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes are much better on both sides of the ball than any of Tech’s prior opponents – especially in the first half. Through 4 games, Miami averages 25.7 points per first half against FBS opponents, and their opponents average only 8.3. In fact, Florida A&M’s 2 field goals produced the only points scored on Miami at home in the first half to this point.
Miami throws at one of the 12 highest rates in the country, and it has produced glorious results through 4 weeks. Cam Ward has propelled the Hurricanes to a top 5 mark in passing ppa and passing success rate in non-garbage time, with a top 25 grade in pass explosiveness. The Hurricanes finish drives with great success as well, averaging more than 5 points per trip on their 35 trips into the green zone in non-garbage time situations – which is 2nd best nationally only behind Ole Miss. Despite a somewhat light schedule to this point, Virginia Tech’s pass defense is outside the top 60 in ppa and outside the top 75 in explosives, so it’s reasonable to expect the Hokies to struggle against such a high-powered Miami passing attack. Look for the first half trends for these teams to continue. Playable to -11.
Read our full Virginia Tech vs Miami prediction
Washington Huskies +2.5 over Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is an interesting matchup, as Washington makes its way to the east coast for a conference game for the first time as a member of the Big Ten. These offenses approach the game differently, as the Huskies rely more on the pass while the Scarlet Knights are run-heavy. While Rutgers’ metrics are very strong against the pass to this point, it has played an FCS opponent and 2 FBS opponents in Akron and Virginia Tech that are outside the top 85 in pass ppa in non-garbage time. Washington’s passing attack is much better than that, led by a seasoned veteran in 5th year quarterback Will Rogers – who has thrown more than 100 touchdowns and is nearing 14,000 career yards.
As a whole, the Huskies are top 10 in pass ppa and success rate and should find enough success through the air to keep this game within a 2 point margin if not win outright – especially if Rutgers continues its trend of not generating havoc. The Knights defense is 94th in havoc in non-garbage time, and has only produced 4 sacks through 4 games. Meanwhile, Rogers has an adjusted completion percentage of 83% (19th nationally among qualified quarterbacks) and just 1 turnover-worthy play when kept clean. I think the cross-country travel is priced into this line by the oddsmakers, and I’m expecting to see an overly-motivated Husky squad playing on the road for the first time as a Big Ten member in its coach’s home state. Playable to +2.
Check out our full Washington vs Rutgers prediction
