Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 is finally here, and with it comes one high-profile Big Ten game that features two of the most storied programs in college football. All eyes will be on Ann Arbor on Saturday as one of the marquee games of the weekend features a pair of ranked teams as the USC Trojans take on the Michigan Wolverines at the Big House. This is sure to be an entertaining contest, and should go a long way to determining a shot at the College Football Playoff for at least one of these teams. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 4:00 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full USC vs Michigan predictions.
USC to win by 1-14 points (+170)
Under 44.5 (-110)
LSU vs USC Same Game Parlay odds: +416
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as backing USC to win by 1-14 actually increases our value since it actually needs to results to occur (USC winning and Michigan keeping the game within 14 points or less). Let’s break down our Same Game Parlay for this matchup.
USC to win by 1-14 points over Michigan (+170)
I’m getting a little exotic with the side portion in this Same Game Parlay over at FanDuel, as we’ll be parlaying the USC money line with Michigan +14.5 on an alternate spread to achieve this first leg. While this leg does require multiple conditions for it to cash, I find it hard to believe that a USC victory comes in blowout fashion, particularly with this game priced at under a touchdown.
I was high on Lincoln Riley’s team heading into the season, and the Trojans offense looked like a well-oiled machine in their impressive victory over LSU. That carried over into a dominant victory over Utah State in Week 2, and now Miller Moss and company are coming off a bye week to face a Wink Martindale defense that doesn’t exactly disguise what it wants to do very well. Moss will be prepared to handle the high blitz rate from Michigan, and he should thrive under pressure, much like he did against LSU in Week 1. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has already reshaped a USC defense that was 117th in EPA per play allowed in 2023, as the Trojans look like a top 25 defensive unit in the nation to this point. They’ll surely be prepared for a Michigan offense that is going to run the ball and look to shorten the game, and I expect USC’s defense (10th in EPA per rush, 17th in rush success rate) to rise to the occasion on the road.
As for the Wolverines, the pivot to Alex Orji is probably the best solution for the Wolverines at quarterback going forward. After all, their offense is built around the run and Orji is essentially a run-first quarterback that you would expect to excel in the system. The issue is that he didn’t win the job in fall camp, which makes it hard to trust his upside in such a pivotal game against a quality opponent that should be a College Football Playoff contender. While Michigan’s defense is good, it doesn’t have the same punch as it did over the past couple of seasons, which also makes it hard to fade Riley off a bye in this spot. The Trojans have passed the eye test this year while the Wolverines have not, so we’ll take USC to win by 14 points or fewer in this matchup.
Under 44.5 (-110)
Michigan was already 131st in seconds per play heading into this contest, and I can’t imagine they’d suddenly want to operate at a quicker pace in a game of this magnitude. Michigan’s offense is built to run clock and play keep away from the USC offense, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this will lead to points on the scoreboard for the Wolverines. Despite playing one more game than USC, Michigan has one less trip inside the opposing 40-yard line than the Trojans, which speaks to the futility of this offense. Things won’t come easy against a Trojan defense that is vastly improved from last year given its staff upgrade, and now yields less than 3 points per opposing scoring opportunity for the season. It’s hard to trust in Michigan’s offense, but we can expect a low-possession game with a lot of running clock, so let’s target the under in this Big Ten showdown.
