Sam Avellone
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The Tennessee Volunteers have been on a torrid run to start the season. They have scored more than 50 points in each of their games, lead the country in yards per play margin and are first overall in defensive ppa in non-garbage time. Those numbers will be put to the test on Saturday when they travel to Norman, Okla. for their first true road game and the Oklahoma Sooners’ first conference game as a member of the SEC.
As with most notable primetime matchups like this one, we have you covered with a Tennessee vs Oklahoma Same Game Parlay for Saturday night’s massive SEC matchup, in addition to our college football picks for all the big games this weekend. Now let’s analyze each leg.
Nico Iamaleava (TEN) 250+ alt passing yards (-132)
Tennessee Volunteers first half -3.5 (-114)
Jackson Arnold (OU) 25+ rushing yards (-136)
Tennessee vs Oklahoma Same Game Parlay odds: +423
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing, where you can use a TEN v OU 50% profit boost to increase these odds to +636!
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Nico Iamaleava (TEN) 250+ passing yards (-132)
Through 3 weeks, Oklahoma’s pass defense is around the national average. Not bad, but not good considering the Sooners haven’t played any top 50 passing offenses yet. The Sooners are 82nd in opposing pass ppa and 78th in pass success despite a relatively light schedule to this point, which is a bit concerning with Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers coming to town. With the emergence of Iamaleava, Tennessee’s offense looks much like it did in 2022. For reference, the Vols are 3rd nationally in pass success (excluding garbage time) and 20th in pass ppa while averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air. Iamaleava has not played a full game to this point, yet he has thrown for nearly 700 yards on 48 completions with a 71.6% completion percentage and 4 big time throws per PFF. With an expected full workload in Oklahoma, Iamaleava should surpass 250 passing yards against what has been an underwhelming Sooner secondary.
Read our full Tennessee vs Oklahoma prediction
Tennessee Volunteers first half -3.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (-114)
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel loves to start games fast. He is the most profitable coach against the first half spread over the last decade, with his teams covering the number at nearly a 70% clip in that time. On the road, Heupel teams’ first half cover rate jumps to about 73%. So far this season, the Vols are 3-0 ATS in the first half despite laying massive numbers against Chattanooga and Kent State. There should be plenty of motivation from Heupel and the Vols to continue that trend in this matchup, not only because it’s their first conference game — but because there is a history between Heupel and the Sooners. As you have probably heard all week, Heupel not only played at Oklahoma, but he was on Bob Stoops’ staff before being fired in favor of Lincoln Riley after the 2014 season. He has downplayed that history all week, but as a natural competitor I’m sure Heupel wants to score early and often in his return to Norman. Look for the Volunteers to flex their offensive advantage (5th in ppa vs 115th for Oklahoma) early in this game and head into halftime with at least a touchdown lead. Playable to -4.
Jackson Arnold (OU) 25+ rushing yards (-136)
Tennessee’s defense has pressured opposing quarterbacks at least 10 times in every game thus far, and Jackson Arnold has not been great under pressure. Per PFF, Arnold has completed only 6 of 17 passes on 29 dropbacks against pressure, with 1 touchdown and 2 turnover-worthy plays that were both intercepted. Against a Tennessee defense that is 1st nationally in opposing pass explosiveness in addition to top 7 in opposing pass ppa and havoc generated, I don’t see a path to success for Arnold through the air. The Sooners are 63th in havoc allowed, which leads me to believe he will be forced to use his legs a lot against the Tennessee defense. Arnold is no stranger to running the ball. He has toted the pigskin at least 11 times in each game and averages 4.4 yards per carry.
