Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 3 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it didn’t turn out to be the most exciting slate. However, starting with some blockbuster matchups at the Power 4 and Group of 5 level this week, the action should only ramp up from here. With Saturday rapidly approaching, it’s time to dive into the Week 4 slate with my weekly best bets column. It was a tough 1-2 Saturday in Week 3, but at least we had a rocking chair winner get to the window for us with Indiana.
We’ve got a couple of high-profile matchups to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a few games a bit further down the board that I show value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 4 schedule of games on Saturday.
Oklahoma Sooners +7.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers (-110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Playable to Oklahoma +7.
It’s not often that Oklahoma is an underdog at home, especially at over a touchdown. In fact, Oklahoma was last an underdog at home back in 2016 against Ohio State, when J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes beat Baker Mayfield in convincing fashion as short favorites in Norman. You’d have to go back to 1998 to find the last time Oklahoma was a home underdog of 7 points or more, as the Sooners knocked off Texas Tech as 7-point underdogs. Oklahoma has only been an underdog at home 5 times over the past 25+ years, but this week might be the toughest task a Sooners team has had to face in Norman in quite some time.
Tennessee enters this high-profile SEC matchup with all of the momentum, as the Volunteers have demolished opponents by a combined score of 190-13 over the first 3 weeks of the season. Nico Iamaleava is getting as much Heisman Trophy buzz as any other quarterback in the nation, and it appears to be justified, as he has 7 total touchdowns over the first couple of games while barely breaking seeing the field after halftime in 2 of these 3 games. However, Saturday’s game in Norman is going to be the toughest environment the redshirt freshman has played in by far, and the same goes for an Oklahoma defense that is one of the best in the nation. Led by Danny Stutsman patrolling the middle of the field, Oklahoma is a top 20 defense in EPA per rush, EPA per dropback and net points per drive. The Sooners are also elite on early downs and when their opponents cross the 40-yard line. I don’t expect Tennessee’s “ping pong on grass” offense to experience anywhere near the level of success that it’s seen to this point.
On the other side, Oklahoma’s offensive line has been a massive reason why the Sooners were faded in the market a week ago against Tulane. And while the passing offense still left a bit to be desired, Oklahoma ran the ball effectively, particularly when quarterback Jackson Arnold either ran by design, or improvised his way to big plays. That level of improvisation will be key against a Tennessee defensive front that will look to pin its ears back in passing downs. The key for Arnold and this Sooners passing attack will be getting the ball out quickly and limiting the pressure from James Pearce Jr. and company on the Volunteers defensive line. Once Oklahoma crosses into opposing territory, the Sooners are pretty efficient at finishing drives, and I expect them to be methodical and deliberate in order to keep Josh Heupel’s offense on the sidelines for as long as possible. The hate for Oklahoma has gone a bit too far in the market, so I’ll back the Sooners at over a touchdown here.
Read our full Tennessee Volunteers vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction
Oklahoma State Cowboys ML over Utah Utes (+110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Oklahoma State ML playable to -110.
There is plenty of injury uncertainty surrounding this game, primarily revolving around the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising after the senior suffered a hand injury in the Utes’ win over Baylor back in Week 2. After missing last week’s game against Utah State, Rising is expected to play in Saturday’s massive contest in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. However, we still have no real idea of his health, particularly when it comes to pushing the ball downfield in the passing game. What we do know is that this is a spot in which Mike Gundy’s teams typically rise to the challenge. In fact, since 2016, Gundy is 9-1 as a home underdog, while Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is just 2-5 on the road against Top 25 teams over the last 3 seasons. Historical trends aren’t the only thing you want to look at when wagering on any game, but there is enough precedent here for both coaches and programs that the data must be considered.
Outside of Rising’s health — which is already a major factor in evaluating Utah’s offense against a quality opponent — the Utes have been a fairly middling passing offense anyway this season (76th in passing success rate, 54th in EPA per dropback). Things won’t get easier against an Oklahoma State side that ranks inside the top 15 at limiting their opponents’ scoring opportunities once they cross the Cowboys’ 40-yard line. On offense, the Cowboys have had real trouble getting star running back Ollie Gordon going over their first 3 games. With that said, Utah has one of the better defensive fronts in this conference, so I doubt Oklahoma State is going to rely on Gordon to generate most of its offense anyway. Instead, the Cowboys should let Bowman get comfortable early in the game by connecting on some short and intermediate throws, before opening it up as the game goes on.
Utah State’s offense was projected to be one of the worst in the Mountain West this season and the Aggies just tallied nearly 6 yards per play against this Utes defense, which gives me pause when thinking about how the Utes can consistently stop the Cowboys on Saturday. This is a game that could go either way, and given the uncertain history we have with Rising in this position, I’m naturally going to side with the healthier offense and take Oklahoma State at home.
Read our full Utah vs Oklahoma State prediction
Buffalo Bulls +14 vs Northern Illinois Huskies (-110)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable to Buffalo +13.5
A few weeks ago, my favorite bet of Week 2 was backing Northern Illinois against Notre Dame as over 4-touchdown underdogs in what was a great spot for the Huskies. Even I didn’t see an outright upset coming in that game, as the Huskies shocked the college football world and defeated the mighty Irish in South Bend for one of the biggest upsets in the sport in years. Now, we’re getting a chance to fade this same Northern Illinois team in a much different position, and I can’t pass that up.
The Huskies are certainly one of the better teams in the MAC, but they’re also a team that I’d be much more comfortable backing as an underdog than a favorite, particularly when the number is this massive. It’s clear that we’re getting a healthy dose of market inflation on NIU following that victory over Notre Dame in Week 2, and it’s fair to question how this team will handle being the top dog in this league heading into conference play. There’s also the matter of all of the media attention and hype surrounding coach Thomas Hammock and his players in the two weeks since they last took the field. I’m a bit skeptical about where their heads will be at coming off a 2-week celebration of what was easily the biggest win in program history. There’s also a game next week against NC State that suddenly looks very winnable for Northern Illinois, a result that would certainly potentially them in the driver’s seat for a College Football Playoff berth.
Even without the distractions at hand for the Huskies, this is a team that isn’t built to blow teams out, particularly conference rivals who have an understanding of how they play. Northern Illinois employs a rush-heavy offense, which makes them much more intriguing as an underdog than as a double digit favorite against a conference foe. To make matters worse, Hammock is just 4-16 as a favorite against FBS opponents as a head coach, including a woeful 1-5 record as a favorite by more than a touchdown. That doesn’t bode well for this weekend’s matchup against a Buffalo team that has exceeded market expectations to this point in the season. Let’s take the Bulls to cover the 2 touchdown spread, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this game came down to the final few possessions.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns +3 (-110) vs Tulane Green Wave
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Louisiana ML playable to +100.
This number continues to take money and will likely be trending under a field goal at most shops by Friday evening, but I still like Louisiana on the money line at +100 or better. This is one of the best situational spots on the board for Saturday’s card, as Louisiana is coming off a bye week while Tulane just had to play back-to-back close games against Kansas State and Oklahoma, in which the Green Wave had real shots to win those games but ultimately fell short. Tulane also has a pretty important home date with South Florida next week to kick off conference play in the AAC, a game that should mean much more to the Green Wave now that their College Football Playoff hopes are likely dashed.
Louisiana is a hard team to get a read on because the Ragin’ Cajuns have only played Kennesaw State and Grambling this season. However, they did blow out both of those opponents and the offense looked strong behind third year quarterback Ben Wooldridge. On the other side of the ball, the Louisiana defense should be able to confuse and frustrate Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah, who is still learning how to play at this level and has had major issues with accuracy in each of his starts this season. While I do really like the direction of where this Tulane program is going, especially with head coach Jon Sumrall at the helm of a program with more resources than you’d think, this is still a talented Louisiana team with a coaching staff that has plenty of familiarity with Sumrall from his days as head coach at Troy. The Ragin’ Cajuns offense should see plenty of success in a game where Tulane’s defense could be beat up after a pair of physical contests, and I just don’t like the spot for the Green Wave in their second straight road game, and third consecutive game against a quality opponent. I’ve got Louisiana winning this game outright, so I’ll gladly take the points here.
