Sam Avellone
Show Bio
I hope you canceled your Saturday plans, because college football is taking over this week with 6 ranked matchups and 6 other matchups between undefeated teams. We had plenty of drama last week with Alabama struggling to score against USF, South Carolina leading Georgia at halftime in Athens, Boston College almost completing a come-from-behind win over Florida State, and Colorado State blowing a double-digit lead over Colorado in Boulder as double-digit underdogs – and I would not be surprised to see even more drama this week given the magnitude of these matchups.
As one of the most loaded college football slates in years, there are plenty of attractive games to choose from this week that have postseason implications. With so much excitement, I’ve put together a 3-leg college football parlay containing my favorite plays in some of the biggest games on the slate. Let’s check it out.
Ole Miss ML (+225)
Penn State -14.5 (-108)
Notre Dame ML (+124)
NCAAF Parlay odds: +1302
Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Ole Miss Rebels ML over Alabama Crimson Tide (+225)
If you read my SEC season preview before a ball was kicked, you may already know where I stand in this matchup. We have Alabama under 10.5 wins and Ole Miss to win the SEC West at 20/1, and nothing I have seen to this point of the season makes me change my opinion on those positions. I think the Rebels have a great chance to go into Tuscaloosa and beat the Tide like the Longhorns did a couple of weeks ago – a play that me and my colleague Caleb were all over in Week 2.
I have a feeling that Lane Kiffin has a few tricks up his sleeve for this matchup that we have yet to see on film. Remember, Kiffin and his new defensive coordinator Pete Golding both have experience working under Nick Saban – which should benefit the Rebels in their preparation for this matchup. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has been excellent for Ole Miss through 3 games with improved accuracy and downfield passing while maintaining his dangerous rushing capabilities, giving Ole Miss an edge over Alabama at the position. Dart has thrown for more than 850 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception while completing 66.2% of his passes and ranking in the top 25 of PFF’s passing grade. He also leads the team in rushing with 213 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry. Obviously, Kiffin would love for his all-world running back Quinshon Judkins to get going, as he has just 145 yards and 3.3 yards per carry – but he has scored 4 times and still requires attention from opposing defenses. When opposition sells out to stop the run, Dart has been able to make them pay, throwing for big gains to a talented trio of receivers in Jordan Watkins, Tre Harris and Dayton Wade – all of whom average at least 19 yards per reception.
Unlike Ole Miss, Alabama has yet to find much reliability at the quarterback position. After juggling playing time last week between Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner, Saban elected to name Jalen Milroe the starter for this matchup. Milroe is a dual-threat quarterback that is great with his legs but struggles with passing accuracy. He can hit a deep pass, but he is inconsistent with short and intermediate throws – a trait Golding is likely aware of as a member of the Alabama staff last season. Furthermore, Milroe already has 4 turnover-worthy plays in 62 dropbacks. Through 3 games, Ole Miss’s defense ranks top 30 in PFF’s total defense, tackling, and rush defense – which are strong traits to have against this version of Alabama. The Rebels also are a top-40 team in defensive havoc while Alabama is outside the top 95 in havoc allowed. Because I expect Golding to have a plan to limit what will likely be a run-heavy Alabama offense, Ole Miss should have an advantage offensively and has a great chance to escape Tuscaloosa with a win.
Read our full Ole Miss vs Alabama predictions
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Penn State Nittany Lions -14.5 over Iowa Hawkeyes (-108)
The Hawkeyes come into this contest after a 41-point performance against Western Michigan, which should help offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz with his 25-points-per-game goal. However, I do not think Iowa is going to have that same success against Penn State this week. The Nittany Lions rank 6th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and 12th in unadjusted points per drive allowed. On the other side, Iowa is 85th in offensive EPA according to CFBGraphs, 112th in offensive success rate and outside the top 90 in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes will be without as much as 40% of their offensive production in this game including their leading receiver in tight end Luke Lachey and 2 of their top 3 rushers. That leaves them with just 1 running back that has logged at least 10 carries this season and 1 pass catcher that has pulled in more than 5 passes. Playing behind a solid offensive line, quarterback Cade McNamara has been under pressure on less than 30% of his dropbacks, but Penn State’s defensive front is one of the nation’s best and should get to McNamara – who completes less than 50% of his passes when pressured.
The Nittany Lions have been very successful on the offensive side of the ball this season, with a top-25 rating in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency. Quarterback Drew Allar has been as good as advertised and leads the country in PFF’s passing grade when under pressure, which is a good trait to have against an Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are known for being a bruising defensive bunch and have started the season with top-10 ratings in most defensive efficiency metrics. However, I am not sure they will continue the success they had in years past in conference play this season. The Hawkeyes lost just over 50% of their defensive production from last year including key contributors like Jack Campbell and Lukas Van Ness. Furthermore, they have not been truly tested by an opponent that ranks in the top half of the country offensively to this point. With multiple defense leaders being replaced and an inefficient offense missing some of its top contributors, I have a hard time seeing Iowa keeping this game within the number – especially in such a daunting environment under the lights during a Penn State Whiteout.
Check out our expert’s college football week 4 best bets for Saturday
Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML over Ohio State Buckeyes (+124)
The Pickswise staff, including myself, loves the Irish this week – so let’s include them in the mega parlay. The Irish held Stroud to 6.6 yards per pass last season in Marcus Freeman’s first regular season game as head coach and even managed a lead at halftime, but they could not muster a point after the intermission and eventually lost 21-10. This time around, the Irish will be at home with a quarterback advantage. Through 4 games on his new team, Sam Hartman is top 20 in PFF’s passing grade, adjusted completion percentage, and big-time throw percentage – giving the Irish offense an element it did not have in the previous matchup. Furthermore, Notre Dame’s offensive line has been solid, allowing pressure on just 22% of Hartman’s dropbacks. This unit and the passing attack will be put to the test against Ohio State’s defense, which ranks 2nd in PFF’s pass rush grade and 1st in coverage grade albeit playing against the 98th-rated strength of schedule thus far per Sagarin. To alleviate pressure from the passing attack, Notre Dame has PFF’s top-rated rusher in the country in Audric Estime, who has a knack for making defenders miss. He averages 4.73 yards after contact per attempt and gains 8.3 total yards per carry, providing Notre Dame with a key piece to help maintain ball control and navigate the aggressive Buckeye defense. While Ohio State’s defense grades out at an elite level, the Buckeyes have yet to see an offense of Notre Dame’s pedigree with a quarterback that possesses Hartman’s down-field passing ability and a running back with Estime’s rushing ability.
Playing on the road in his first hostile opposing environment could be overwhelming for new starter Kyle McCord, especially early, so I expect the rushing attack to be a big part of the Buckeye game plan. Unfortunately for them, Notre Dame has a talented group of defensive tackles and linebackers that excel at stopping the run. Furthermore, Ohio State lost multiple key pieces from last year’s talented offensive line and will likely feel the effects of that on the road against Notre Dame’s front 7. This is a tough spot for the Buckeyes and I am hesitant to trust them as a road favorite in this type of environment.
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