Sam Avellone
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The lights will shine down on Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska when the Illinois Fighting Illini arrive to play the Cornhuskers on Friday night. This battle of undefeated and ranked teams marks the start of conference play for each, so this should be very exciting even if you are a neutral viewer. Like every Friday, we’ve got you covered with a Illinois vs Nebraska Same Game Parlay for this Big Ten matchup, in addition to our college football picks for all the big games throughout the weekend. Let’s jump right in.
Dylan Raiola (NEB) over 0.5 interceptions (+120)
Luke Altmyer (ILL) over 0.5 interceptions (-154)
Dante Dowdell (NEB) to score a touchdown (+110)
Illinois vs Nebraska Same Game Parlay odds: +700
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Dylan Raiola (NEB) over 0.5 interceptions (+120)
Dylan Raiola has looked phenomenal in his first 3 games as a college quarterback. He has thrown 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception and 1 turnover-worthy play, but Illinois’ defense will be by far the best he has seen. Brett Bielema’s bunch is predicated on confusing the opposing quarterback and forcing him into mistakes, and the Illini have done just that so far this season. In fact, they average 2 interceptions per game, led by the 2nd-best coverage defender in the Big Ten in Miles Scott (PFF). Furthermore, the Illini have a top-35 pass defense, which was put on display when they held Kansas’ Jalon Daniels to 141 passing yards in addition to forcing 3 interceptions. The step up in defensive class could rattle Raiola a bit and force him into a mistake or two, which is bound to happen as a freshman quarterback in the Big Ten. At plus-money odds, this feels like a good place to start our Illinois vs Nebraska Same Game Parlay.
Read our full Illinois vs Nebraska prediction
Luke Altmyer (ILL) over 0.5 interceptions (-154)
Just like Illinois’ defense is a massive step up in class for Raiola, Nebraska’s defense may be an even bigger step up in class for Luke Altmyer. The Illinois quarterback has started the season with an impressive statline, completing just over 69% of his passes with 647 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. However, Altmyer has 3 turnover-worthy plays despite the 0 interceptions, which suggests regression to the mean may be on the horizon. For reference, Altmyer threw 10 interceptions last season, including 1 at home against Nebraska. Playing under the lights on the road in Nebraska on national tv is enough pressure from an environmental standpoint, but Altmyer figures to be facing a ton of pressure on the field as well. The Cornhuskers are 24th in havoc created and 30th in opposing pass ppa this season while forcing 1.5 turnovers per game. If he continues his pace of turnover-worthy plays, an interception is on the horizon. For what it’s worth, Nebraska has 3 pieces in the secondary that are in the top 18 in the Big Ten in PFF’s coverage grade.
Find out our expert’s college football best bets for Friday night
Dante Dowdell (NEB) to score a touchdown (+110)
Sophomore running back Dante Dowdell seems like the go-to piece in the Nebraska backfield and has a great matchup against an Illinois defense that has struggled to consistently stop the run. The Illini are outside the top 80 in opposing rush ppa in non-garbage time, and they are outside the top 100 in defensive line yards and stuff rate as well. Nebraska really controls the trenches in that aspect, as the Cornhuskers are 5th nationally in stuff rate allowed with a top 35 mark in offensive line yards. The primary beneficiary of that advantage in the trenches should be Dowdell, who leads the team in carries and handled a majority of carries in the red zone against Colorado in Week 2. Despite including a Raiola interception in our Illinois vs Nebraska Same Game Parlay, I still believe Nebraska will cruise and fully expect Dowdell to handle a few red-zone touches while scoring on at least 1 of them.
