Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 3 was a wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets, nail-biting thrillers and stunning finishes throughout the weekend. This week’s slate promises to be no different, as there are a number of intriguing contests on the board.
But before we can get to Saturday’s loaded slate, there’s a Friday card to explore. These aren’t the most high-profile games of the weekend, but there are still good spots to find value. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Friday’s action.
Air Force -23.5 (-110)
Virginia +10 (-107)
Boise State vs UTEP Under 45.5 (-107)
Parlay odds: +618
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with one favorite against the spread, one underdog against the spread and an under. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 3 matchups
Air Force -23.5 (-110) over Nevada
Air Force’s loss to Wyoming last Friday was pretty inexplicable, and it likely doesn’t happen if the Falcons weren’t let down by a few special-teams disasters. With that said, things should get much easier against a hapless Nevada defense this week. Air Force’s bread and butter is the run game, and the Wolfpack won’t offer much resistance.
To this point, the Nevada defense had been surviving based on an insane turnover margin that was bound to regress. That happened in their third game, as the Wolfpack allowed more than 200 yards rushing and over 400 yards passing to Incarnate Word in a Week 3 loss. That was followed up by a drubbing at the hands of Iowa — one of the worst offenses in the nation. Air Force was extremely efficient on offense in Weeks 1 and 2 and I expect the Falcons to regain their form en route to a dominant performance on Friday.
Read our full Nevada vs Air Force predictions
Virginia +10 (-107) over Syracuse
Virginia has serious issues on its offensive line. That much can’t be denied, and those issues reared their ugly head in each of the Cavaliers’ last 2 games. However, that comes with the territory when the entire offensive line transfers in the offseason.
Nevertheless, the woes could be on the way out for Brennan Armstrong and company. Even though they scored only 16 points, the Cavaliers amassed more than 500 total yards against Old Dominion last week. Now they will face a Syracuse team that has been quite impressive this season on offense, but less so on defense. After all, this team allowed well over 400 passing yards to Purdue and was probably lucky to win that game. Yet because of that win, this line sits at double-digits. While the Orange have been a great story to this point, Virginia has obvious value at anything over a touchdown.
Read our full Virginia vs Syracuse predictions
Boise State vs UTEP under 45.5 (-107)
This is a matchup between a pair of teams with solid defenses and struggling offenses. Naturally, an under is the only way I can look in this contest. While this total is priced low enough to reflect the ineptitude of both offenses, it still has a few points of value at the current number. Boise State is currently averaging 26 points per game while surrendering just 248.3 yards on defense. Most of that offensive success came against lowly New Mexico State, further proving that the Broncos are in trouble offensively.
UTEP has actually been worse, putting up just 14 points per game and struggling mightily to string together scoring drives. On the other side, the Miners are only giving up 372 yards per game on defense. This Boise State team has hit the under in 9 of its last 10 games, while UTEP has hit the under in each of its games this season. Look for that to continue in this one.
Be sure to get our college football Week 4 best bets – we’ve gone 3-0 the past 2 weeks!
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