Caleb Wilfinger
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College football is back in earnest, and Week 2 certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. How will Week 3 deliver an encore? We’re just a few hours away from finding out.
Saturday’s slate isn’t the best on paper, but there’s still plenty compelling matchups on the slate, including a couple that I’ll be targeting in this piece. There is value to be had across the board, so I have built a 2-leg college football parlay with my favorite underdogs on the slate. Let’s dive in to our parlay picks, while you can also see our college football picks for all the big matchups for the weekend.
Colorado State ML (+235)
Florida ML (+154)
NCAAF parlay odds: +750
For this college football parlay, we are going with a pair of underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each leg.
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Colorado State Rams ML over Colorado Buffaloes (+235)
A year ago, Colorado hosted Colorado State as massive favorites during the peak of the hype cycle for Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes, and while Colorado did escape with a win in double overtime, Colorado State probably should’ve won that game as over 3-touchdown underdogs. All reports from Mountain West media days this past summer indicated that Colorado State has this one circled, while it appears that this will be just another game for a Buffaloes team whose best players are already giving off the impression that they have bigger fish to fry than winning games for Colorado this season.
This season has gotten off to a tumultuous start Colorado, both on and off the field. The Buffaloes offense is a mess, as they can’t run the ball with any sort of consistent success and they can’t protect Shedeur Sanders on top of that. Colorado can generate explosive plays in the passing game, but the Buffaloes are extremely poor on a down-to-down basis (110th in pass success rate, 74th in early downs EPA, 112th in points per drive), which is far more predictive over time. Defensively, the Buffaloes’ real weakness is against the pass, which is all that Colorado State wants to do on offense. There are some injury questions about Rams star wideout Tory Horton, who torched the Colorado secondary a season ago in the loss, but the available information indicates that he’ll be suited up for Saturday’s contest. That’s enough for me to get to the window.
Despite losing some key pieces defensively, Colorado State kept most of its top talent on offense and will get to host Colorado in a dream spot, as the Buffaloes were just worked by Nebraska and have to hit the road again for a game in a hostile environment against a rival with revenge on its mind. Colorado has won just 1 game by more than a possession since Sanders took over as head coach, so we know the Rams are going to keep this one close throughout the contest. Therefore, I’ll take a shot on Colorado State to pull off the outright upset in Fort Collins.
Don’t miss out expert’s college football best bets for Saturday’s action
Florida Gators ML over Texas A&M Aggies (+154)
To close out our college football parlay, let’s head to the swamp and take the Florida Gators on the money line. After 6 disappointing seasons with Jimbo Fisher at the helm, Texas A&M fans expected a lot out of new head coach Mike Elko, formerly the head coach at Duke. And while I still think the arrow is pointing up in College Station from a long term perspective, this season could be one where the Aggies take their lumps in the early going. Suffering a season-opening loss against Notre Dame at home wasn’t an ideal outcome for Elko’s debut, but it was one that most could understand given the competitive nature of that game. However, after Notre Dame was upset by Northern Illinois in embarrassing fashion in Week 2, it would be fair to question just how acceptable of a loss that was for the Aggies.
After being expected to take a step forward in his sophomore season, Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman has not looked sharp at all this year, posting a 52.3% completion percentage with only 2 touchdowns to go along with a pair of interceptions. The Aggies offense struggled against Notre Dame, putting up only 246 yards of total offense against a Fighting Irish defense that just let Northern Illinois dominate the line of scrimmage and really push them around a week ago. That doesn’t bode well for another game against high-level competition this week, especially since the game is on the road where Weigman has struggled historically.
On the Florida side, the Gators have one of the toughest schedules in football, but a win against a team like Texas A&M could turn their season around after that ugly loss to Miami, and the Gators certainly have the talent to do it. Florida will alternate between veteran quarterback Graham Mertz — who had 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions a season ago — and true freshman DJ Lagway, which gives Elko 2 very different types of players to prepare for on defense. While Billy Napier’s tenure in Gainesville has been disappointing, he has gotten the Gators to show up in big games at home, which is more than we can say for Texas A&M in recent years. Furthermore, given that Miami was just laying 3 points a few weeks ago in the swamp, this is way too much market disrespect for a Florida team that has the talent to pull off the upset on Saturday. I’ll take the Gators on the money line.
Read our full Texas A&M vs Florida prediction
