Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 2 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and was certainly a wild one. Week 3 has already gotten off to a similar start with an exciting game between Arizona State and Texas State, and the action should only ramp up from there. With Saturday rapidly approaching, it’s time to dive into the Week 3 slate with my weekly best bets column. I’ve started the season strong with a 7-3 record in Weeks 1 and 2, so let’s keep the momentum going!
This is one of the stranger slates of the season, as there aren’t many high-profile matchups between ranked teams. However, there is still plenty of value to be had when looking a bit further down the board, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 3 schedule of games on Saturday.
Oregon State Beavers +17.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable to Oregon State +16
Another installment of the “Civil War” rivalry will take place on Saturday, and this year’s version is the first nonconference game between these in-state rivals. Things have not exactly gone to plan thus far for an Oregon team that had National Championship aspirations this season, as the Ducks were underwhelming against Idaho before following that up by winning a dogfight against Boise State a week ago. On the other side, the Beavers have slightly exceeded preseason expectations so far, having dispatched of Idaho State and San Diego State in their first two contests. The market has adjusted to these results as such, moving this number down from as high as 3 touchdowns over the summer. All things considered, I think it’s a justified move given the limited amount of data we have at this point.
For Oregon, the Ducks offense has operated in fits and starts thus far. There are moments where Dillon Gabriel and company play to their potential, but penalties (113th in penalties per game), costly turnovers (87th in turnover margin), 4th down variance and an inability to finish off drives with touchdowns have plagued Dan Lanning’s team to this point. Conversely, the Beavers have racked up well over 900 yards of offense through their first couple of games, while averaging over 6 yards per play in that span. Oregon State has been rock solid on defense, but obviously this Ducks offense represents a massive step up in class for a largely untested unit whose numbers could be skewed a bit based on competition. With that said, Oregon appears to have some real issues on its offensive line at this juncture in the season, so the Beavers defensive front should be able to create some havoc and contain a Ducks rushing attack that has yet to get going.
If the trend of Oregon’s offensive line struggles carries over into Saturday’s matchup, and the Beavers are able to run the ball effectively to take some of the pressure off quarterback Gevani McCoy, Oregon State can absolutely keep this game within a couple of scores. Oregon is certainly the better team, but until I see the Ducks put forth a dominant performance from start to finish, I’m certainly not going to be laying over 2 touchdowns with Oregon on the road.
Read our full Oregon vs Oregon State prediction
Indiana Hoosiers -2.5 over UCLA Bruins (-120)
Odds taken from game preview at time of writing. Playable to Indiana -3 (-115).
Indiana took some steam in the market earlier this week, and I definitely agree with the move. While it’s too early to judge if things have truly turned for the new-look Hoosiers under head coach Curt Cignetti, it is encouraging that Indiana has outscored its first 2 opponents this season by a combined score of 108-10. Former MAC standout Kurtis Rourke looks very comfortable under center and the Hoosiers’ 3-headed monster at running back has been dominant on the ground over their first couple of contests as well. While this week represents a significant step up in competition on paper, I’m not convinced that this UCLA team will be able to keep up on Saturday.
The Bruins were certainly fortunate to escape with a win against Hawaii in Week 1 and while they’ve had a bye week to theoretically work out some of the kinks on offense (112th in success rate, 116th in rushing success rate), new head coach DeShaun Foster — who had absolutely zero experience as a head coach at this level of football previously — hasn’t inspired much confidence in his short tenure thus far. This is a team that is clearly working through the first year of a rebuild after losing nearly half of their statistical production from a season ago, which doesn’t bode well against a coach in Cignetti that does nothing but elevate the talent he’s had at every stop to date. Indiana’s roster might have a ton of turnover from last season, but the majority of these players are guys that Cignetti has either coached previously or coached against, so it’s no surprise that the Hoosiers have hit the ground running this season with an experienced roster and coaching staff.
With a game that is lined at around a field goal, the details and things within the margins will likely decide which teams wins and/or covers. Therefore, given that I know Indiana has the much better coach and decidedly better quarterback, it’s hard not to lay the short number with the Hoosiers at the Rose Bowl.
Read our full Indiana vs UCLA prediction
Mississippi State Bulldogs -10 over Toledo Rockets (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing. Playable to Miss State -10.5 (-110).
Over the summer, I was pretty high on the likes of Bowling Green and Northern Illinois to compete for a MAC title, and while that optimism appears to be justified based on the play of both teams so far, it was also because I thought Toledo would take a major step back this season. After two games, not only does it appear that the Rockets have significantly regressed following an 11-1 regular season in 2023, but this simply might be a bad football team that isn’t in the upper echelon of the MAC this season.
Toledo is coming off a win against a dreadful UMass team in which the Rockets were outgained by 126 yards and posted a 26% success rate at home. The victory doesn’t change the fact that quarterback Tucker Gleason completed just 8 of his 23 pass attempts, bringing his completion percentage to 49% for his career. The losses of Daquan Finn and Peny Boone to the Big 12 clearly hurt this offense, but that’s nothing compared to how awful the defense has looked after losing multiple cornerbacks to the NFL, plus a pair of pass-rushers and one of the top safeties in the MAC. As a result, the Rockets have allowed over 600 yards combined to Duquesne and UMass to start the season. Now, they’ll have to contend with a Mississippi State offense that is probably a bit undervalued after losing at Arizona State a week ago. Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs quitted themselves pretty well in that game, and now Jeff Lebby’s offense will get to play with a ton of tempo against a weary defense that has serious holes to fill following the loss of so much production. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this game turned into a rout early on.
Read our full Don’t miss our expert’s SGP for Georgia vs Kentucky
