Caleb Wilfinger
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After the first 2 weeks delivered a ton of excitement, we should be in for another great weekend of college football. Last week featured some wild finishes, exciting games between ranked teams and unlikely upsets across the Power 5 and Group of 5 alike. In all, it was a weekend that delivered on the promise of what should be a great college football season.
We’ve got plenty of games to choose from this week and I have built a 3-leg college football parlay of my favorite plays. I cashed my first mega parlay of the season at +610 odds in Week 1, so let’s get back on the board with another winner this week! Without any further ado, let’s look at the 3 components of my NCAAF mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Florida ML (+200)
Alabama -31.5 (-115)
Kansas State -3.5 (-110)
NCAAF parlay odds: +958
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with an underdog on the money line and two favorites against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
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Florida Gators ML over Tennessee Volunteers (+200)
This is a game where the home underdog has taken money all week, and it’s easy to see why. I’m not sure if too many college football fans are aware of how bad Tennessee’s offense has been through the first 2 weeks, but this is a far cry from the explosive offensive attack we saw last season with Hendon Hooker at the helm. Joe Milton had an extremely poor game against Austin Peay last week, and he’s been far too inconsistent with his accuracy. It also doesn’t help that the Tennessee wide receiving corps has had serious issues with dropped balls and communication with their quarterback. That doesn’t bode well against a Florida defense that is fundamentally sound, sitting inside the top 10 in the nation in rushing success rate and top 20 in tackling.
The scary part of backing the Gators on the money line is expecting a great effort from Graham Mertz at home. However, Mertz looked decent after a shaky start against Utah on the road in Week 1. It was clear that Florida’s offense was more in sync last weekend in a rout over McNeese State, and that should be the case once again in the Gators’ second straight game at home on Saturday. I’m expecting this game to be decided in the 20s, and we might even get a bit of variance to help us out in the swamp. What could possibly go wrong?
Get our college football picks for all of the Week 3 matchups!
Alabama Crimson Tide -31.5 over South Florida Bulls (-115)
Alabama going down in Week 2 has now opened up the chance to back Nick Saban off a loss; a spot that has been very profitable historically. In fact, Alabama in Saban’s tenure is around 57% against the spread coming off a loss, and keep in mind that the majority of those games were against SEC or other Power 5 competition. Those against-the-spread numbers would look even better if they came against Group of 5 competition, particularly a bad South Florida team that isn’t even expected to make a bowl game this season.
Statistically, this game is a complete and total mismatch. Even including their poor showing against Texas last week, the Crimson Tide are still top 30 in rushing success rate and 7th in the nation in 3rd down offense per CFB-Graphs. Jalen Milroe has struggled in the passing game, but the young quarterback should see success against a South Florida defense that is 104th in passing success rate and 91st in net points per drive. The Crimson Tide have rolled over Group of 5 competition over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring G5 opponents by an average score of 54-6 in that span, so there’s no reason to think that trend slows down here. I have Alabama favored by nearly 5 touchdowns in this spot, so I’m happy to back the Tide on the road.
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Kansas State Wildcats -3.5 over Missouri Tigers (-110)
While both programs are 2-0, these teams have gotten there in different ways. I’m a big fan of this Kansas State program, but I might’ve underrated the Wildcats a bit heading into this season. Will Howard and this Kansas State offense looked terrific in dispatching a good Troy team from the Sun Belt, while the same couldn’t be said of Missouri. The Tigers averaged just 4.9 yards per play while their offensive line provided very little rushing room for the running backs against lowly Middle Tennessee State. The offensive line also yielded 4 sacks to Middle Tennessee, and Brady Cook has been one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the nation through 2 weeks. They also hardly have any explosiveness, as the Tigers offense is primarily based around the short-passing game.
Kansas State will pretty clearly have the offensive-line advantage, anchored by one of the best linemen in the country in Cooper Beebe. The Wildcats defense should also force Cook into mistakes against a solid secondary led by Jacob Parrish. I don’t have any faith in this Missouri offense to execute when it matters most, plus I’m getting the far better coach with Chris Klienman and Collin Klein at offensive coordinator. Let’s back Kansas State at this short number.
Be sure to read our full Kansas State vs Missouri predictions
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