Sam Avellone
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The Georgia Bulldogs open conference play as heavy road favorites under the lights on Saturday night in Lexington, Kentucky. There’s not a ton of value in the current line or total, but if you read my Georgia vs Kentucky predictions, you know I very much favor Georgia’s aerial attack against Kentucky’s secondary. As such, I put together a Georgia vs Kentucky Same Game Parlay targeting the Bulldogs’ passing game. Let’s break down each leg.
Carson Beck (UGA) 250+ passing yards (-118)
Arian Smith (UGA) 50+ receiving yards (+168)
Dominic Lovett (UGA) 50+ receiving yards (-130)
Georgia vs Kentucky Same Game Parlay odds: +466
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Carson Beck (UGA) 250+ passing yards (-118)
With top-35 marks in pass play PPA and success rate, Carson Beck has a plus-matchup against a Kentucky defense that ranks outside the top 75 in opposing pass PPA, success rate and explosiveness in non-garbage time. Despite the massive spread and expected lead Georgia will have in this game, the Bulldog offense is likely to continue to funnel through Beck’s arm. Georgia has a top-10 pass rate through 2 games despite beating its opponents by 76 combined points. Furthermore, Beck has a history of decimating the Wildcat secondary, as he threw for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns in this matchup last year. In fact, Beck surpassed this total in all of Georgia’s regular-season conference games last year.
Find out our college football picks for all of Saturday’s big matchups
Arian Smith (UGA) 50+ receiving yards (+168)
Garnering only 23 career touches prior to this season, Arian Smith had been an afterthought in Georgia’s offense since the day he arrived in Athens in 2020. However, Smith continued to work hard, remained with the program and finally has a starting role as a senior. His 9 receptions this season are already a career high, and he leads the team in pass play snaps, targets and receiving yards while operating as the team’s Z receiver. Smith has been most effective against zone coverages, of which Kentucky plays plenty. He commands a 27.8% target share on his snaps vs zone coverage with nearly a 12-yard aDOT, while gaining a whopping 3.47 yards per route run and 15.6 yards per reception. Furthermore, he averages 7.5 yards after catch per reception, meaning he’s a big play waiting to happen against a Kentucky defense that has yielded 7 20+ yard passes and 3 30+ yard passes in 7 quarters against Southern Mississippi and South Carolina.
Dominic Lovett (UGA) 50+ receiving yards (-130)
While Dominic Lovett is 3rd on the team in receiving yards, he is tied as Georgia’s 2nd-most targeted receiver and has the 2nd-most pass play snaps just behind Smith. Of Georgia’s 5 most targeted players this year, Lovett has the most rapport with Beck being that he hauled in more than 50 passes on 70 targets for nearly 615 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2023. Like last year, he operates mostly out of the slot and gets his yards much differently than Smith. Lovett is a yards-after-catch monster, averaging 11.6 per reception vs zone coverage and 58 total through 2 games. His yards per route run and aDOT are low, but Kentucky is outside the top 100 in yards per pass attempt allowed and 3 of its top 4 secondary pieces allow at least 17 yards per reception and 15-yards aDOT. Look for him to break away for a big gain or 2 en route to eclipsing this receiving prop.
