Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
College football is back in earnest, and Week 2 certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets (hello Northern Illinois!) and games that came down to the wire. How will Week 3 deliver an encore? We’re just a few hours away from finding out.
With the chaos of Week 2 in the rearview mirror and the third week of the college football season already underway, it’s time to get into the Week 3 slate with my weekly best bets column. I’ve started the season strong with a 7-3 record in Weeks 1 and 2, so let’s keep the momentum going! Friday night’s slate isn’t the biggest, but it features a couple of important games for a quartet of teams that all have aspirations of making the College Football Playoff. I’m expecting a pair of competitive contests in Big 12 country, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 3 schedule of games on Friday.
Lock in our Arizona vs Kansas State Same Game Parlay picks for Friday night at +550 odds
UNLV Rebels vs Kansas Jayhawks Over 57.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.
The Kansas Jayhawks have been a team that I was looking to fade heading into the season, and life without former offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hasn’t been the easiest adjustment for quarterback Jalon Daniels and this offense. With that said, this is still an extremely talented unit that absolutely should’ve put more points on the board in last week’s loss at Illinois. It just so happens that a matchup against a UNLV defense that has yet to face a competent offense could be a recipe for a breakout effort for Daniels and Kansas, which points me in the direction of a high-scoring affair. As for the Rebels, their offense is humming in Brennan Marion’s second year as offensive coordinator, with FCS imports Matt Sluka and Hajj-Malik Williams stepping in to lead a potent rushing attack in Las Vegas. Barry Odom’s team has racked up a whopping 99 points over its first 2 games, and I wouldn’t expect that momentum to slow down anytime soon. Look for plenty of explosive plays in the ground game if Marion’s system sees some early success, which certainly bodes well for an over in this one.
While these aren’t the same teams as a season ago, the posted total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl between these 2 programs last December was 8 points higher than this number. Furthermore, these teams still combined to clear that total with ease in a 49-36 Kansas victory. On one side, I’m not willing to write off Daniels and a strong group of skill position talent just because of one game where the Jayhawks probably should’ve won if not for a -3 turnover margin. And on the visitors’ side, there’s no reason why UNLV shouldn’t be able to run effectively on a Kansas defensive front that hasn’t been tested against a quality offense to this point. While I’m not expecting another 85-point shootout on Friday, I’ll still gladly back the over now that we’re seeing such a massive adjustment in this game.
Read our full UNLV vs Kansas prediction
Arizona Wildcats vs Kansas State Wildcats Over 58.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 60.
I’m not the biggest believer in either of these teams from a long-term perspective, but this game should be wildly entertaining and feature plenty of offense. Both of these Big 12 teams have very talented quarterbacks under center who are leading a pair of offensive units with big-play potential. For the visitors, Arizona has one of the best QB-WR duos in the country with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, and this pair should keep on rolling on Friday. The Arizona passing game should fare well against a Kansas State defense that gave up 18 yards per reception against a Tulane quarterback making his first start at the FBS level. While Arizona hasn’t faced the strongest competition through the first couple of weeks, there is something to the fact that the Wildcats rank 7th in EPA per dropback, 17th in offensive EPA margin and 1st in net points per drive (College Football Insiders). All of this bodes well for Brent Brennan’s group to rack up plenty of yards and points on Friday.
Kansas State’s passing game has operated in fits and starts thus far, with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson struggling with finding some consistency in the downfield passing game. With that said, I would expect Arizona’s defense could struggle against Johnson’s mobility in Conor Riley’s offense, especially considering that the Wildcats just gave up 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground to New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier, who is much more adept as a runner than he is a thrower of the football. The threat of Johnson’s legs should open up the playbook a bit for Kansas State against an Arizona defense that is 81st in EPA per pass and 98th in net points per drive. With both offenses holding considerable advantages over the opposing defenses, this one has all the makings of an old-fashioned Big 12 track meet in Manhattan.
Read our full Arizona vs Kansas State predictions
