Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Week 3 of the 2024 college football season treats us to the Rocky Mountain Showdown between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Colorado State Rams under the lights in Fort Collins for the first time since 1996. If Saturday’s contest is anything like last year, then we are in for an absolute treat when these Centennial State rivals face off. For reference, the ‘Buffs beat the Rams 43-35 in double overtime last year after trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter, so the Rams have revenge on their mind despite the fact that Colorado is laying 7 points on the road in a bounce-back spot following a 28-10 defeat at Nebraska.
Expecting a thrilling game with a good bit of points, this matchup between Colorado and Colorado State is ideal for a same game parlay – if you’re into that sort of thing. Here are a few player props that I found to be of value, which you can parlay together for +500 odds!
Justin Marshall (CSU) over 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Tory Horton (CSU) anytime touchdown (-105)
Jimmy Horn Jr. (COL) over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Colorado vs Colorado State same game parlay odds: +500
Odds courtesy of Bet365, who is offering a 30% boost on college football same game parlays this weekend. With that boost, you can get this parlay at +650!
Justin Marshall (CSU) over 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Redshirt freshman Justin Marshall made the most of his limited opportunities last season. He appeared in only 3 games, but he carried the ball 57 times for 314 yards and 2 touchdowns – including a program-record 119 yards in his collegiate debut. As the lead back this season, he picked up right where he left off. He gained 106 yards on 25 carries against Texas despite the 52-0 blowout loss, and he averaged 6.7 yards on 10 carries last week against FCS Northern Colorado – a game in which he sat most of the second half.
The Rams offense has been predicated around the run through 2 games this season, ranking top 30 in rush rate despite the Week 1 blowout. The Rams have been fairly good on the ground too, boasting a top 50 mark in rush PPA and a top 12 mark in rush success rate. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Buffaloes are outside the top 90 in rush PPA and explosives allowed. Furthermore, they are outside the top 70 in rush success rate and outside the top 100 in stuff rate. Given Colorado State’s expected slow and methodical run-first approach offensively, the Rams should find running lanes early and often against Colorado’s defense while extending drives and putting the Rams into multiple scoring situations. The direct beneficiary of that figures to be Marshall, who leads the team in snap count, rush attempts, rushing yards and explosive runs.
Tory Horton (CSU) anytime touchdown (-105)
Tory Horton did some damage to the Buffaloes last year in Boulder, catching 16 passes on 18 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown. While he may not reach that level of production again on Saturday, there’s good reason to think he can at least find the end zone against Colorado’s defense. Under a new defensive coordinator that has never been in this role before, the Buffaloes are playing more man coverage than they did last season – against which Horton found plenty of success in 2023. Per PFF, he scored 4 of his 8 touchdowns on just 28 targets and 20 receptions against man coverage last year, in addition to 14.3 yards per reception and 199 total yards after catch. Having failed to reach the end zone to this point in 2024, Horton – who has 11 total touchdowns against non-conference opponents in 2 seasons with the Rams – should be the focal point of Colorado State’s red zone offense against its in-state rival on a national stage on Saturday night. At near-even money, adding the Rams’ leader in targets since 2022 seems like a no-brainer.
Check out our full game preview for Colorado vs Colorado State
Jimmy Horn Jr. (COL) over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Given Colorado’s market popularity, I try to refrain from betting on the stars like Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter – seeking value elsewhere on the depth chart. While he is not on the field or targeted as much as Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. has a significant role on this offense and a more established connection with Sanders than transfers LaJohntay Wester and Will Sheppard. He leads the team in yards per reception (22.4) and yards per route run (3.07), and leads Colorado’s receivers with 11.9 yards after catch per reception. He put his big-play capability on display in Week 1 when he gained 198 yards against North Dakota State, and it was on display last year against Colorado State when he had a long reception of 45 yards en route to 66 total. Given Colorado’s reliance on the passing game and an expected focus on Hunter by the Rams defense, Horn should dominate the slot with plenty of targets and opportunities to gain chunk yards after the catch. For what it’s worth, 4 of the current starters in the Rams secondary were poor against slot receivers last season. Ayden Hector, Dominic Morris, Chase Wilson and Jack Howell yielded 103 receptions and 1,157 yards on combined 118 targets out of the slot – where Horn has lined up on more than 85% of his snaps this year.
