Sam Avellone
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College football is rich with upsets in general, but Week 2 was something else. High-level programs such as Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M lost as double digit favorites at home, while Baylor, Florida, Pittsburgh, and Houston each lost to lower ranked teams as well. Not to mention Georgia Southern’s 45-42 win at Nebraska, which ultimately led to Scott Frost’s firing this week.
While it will be tough to replicate the amount and magnitude of upsets we saw last weekend, Week 3 offers plenty of matchups that feature underdogs with attractive odds. Here are 3 of my favorite underdog picks of the week.
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Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Week 3 best underdog bets
LSU Tigers +2.5 (-110) over Mississippi State
Coach Mike Leach and his Mississippi State air raid offense travel to Death Valley on Saturday night to take on the LSU Tigers in what will be each team’s first conference game. Having played Florida State in Week 1, LSU is a bit more battle tested than Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are 2-0 with wins against Memphis and Arizona as double digit favorites. Considering LSU lost to Florida State, a lot of eyes will be on coach Brian Kelly to see if he can avoid a 0-2 start against Power 5 opponents in his first season with LSU. Luckily for Kelly and the Tigers, running back John Emery Jr is expected to return to the field this week after missing all of 2021 and the first 2 weeks of this season with an injury. Emery is a bruising runner that averages about 5 yards per carry and has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. His presence should help take pressure off quarterback Jayden Daniels, who currently leads the team in rushing, and the talented LSU wide receivers.
With Will Rogers at the helm and Leach calling plays, the Bulldogs are going to pass early and often against the Tigers – even if it is to their detriment. This game represents a big step up in class from the first 2 opponents Mississippi State faced, not to mention Death Valley is one of the most difficult places to play in all of college football. Coach Leach is known to take chances, and that could come back to bite the Bulldogs against LSU. After ranking outside the top 50 in giveaways per game last year, the Bulldogs have already committed 5 turnovers this season. The LSU defense has forced 6 turnovers so far and is rumored to be adding defensive back and OSU transfer Sevyn Banks to the mix this week, so I like this matchup for the Tigers on paper. Take the points in what should be a very closely contested SEC matchup.
Check out our Week 3 CFB mega parlay!
UTSA Roadrunners +12.5 (-110) over Texas Longhorns
Coming into this matchup off back-to-back overtime games will not be easy, but I cannot help but think the Roadrunners will be up for this game against the Texas Longhorns. They have a good offense under coach Jeff Traylor, not to mention a great college quarterback in Frank Harris – who has improved every year. After an impressive 2021 season, Harris has already thrown for 696 yards and 6 touchdowns with just 1 interception all while completing over 68% of his passes and adding close to 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Harris also has a trio of highly experienced wide receivers in Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De’Corian Clark, each of whom has recorded at least 13 receptions, 160 yards, and 1 touchdown. In fact, the trio has combined for 50 receptions, 600 yards, and 6 touchdowns through just 2 games. While the Texas secondary has looked strong through the first 2 games of the season, this trio could be the best wide receiver group the Longhorns have faced despite last week’s opponent being Alabama.
Between the injuries to Quinn Ewers and Hudson Card, we do not know who or how healthy the Texas quarterback will be on Saturday – which could play into UTSA’s defensive strength. UTSA has yielded an average of 37.5 points per game (keep in mind both games went to overtime), but it has been solid against the run – allowing just 3.3 yards per carry despite opponents running the ball on almost 64% of plays against the Roadrunners. With the uncertainty at quarterback for the Longhorns, expect them to rely heavily on Bijan Robinson. Robinson is better than any of the running backs UTSA has faced thus far, but the Roadrunners have a few solid tacklers across their front 7. This feels like too many points in what could be a textbook letdown spot for a Texas team that was so close to upsetting Alabama last week despite issues with injuries. Take the in-state underdog with the points in this one. A sprinkle on the money line probably would not hurt either if you see odds close to +400.
SMU Mustangs +2.5 (-110) over Maryland
Also consider SMU ML +120
SMU is another Group of 5 team traveling to a Power 5 stadium, but the Mustangs’ offense is legit with a very good quarterback in senior Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai started his college career at Oklahoma before transferring to SMU after the 2020 season. In his first season as a starting college quarterback, he threw for 3,628 yards and 39 touchdowns with a completion percentage of 67.8% and 12 interceptions. Now back for another season with the Mustangs, Mordecai has already thrown for close to 650 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception. His main beneficiary is wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has recorded 17 receptions for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns through 2 games. Maryland’s secondary showed vulnerability against Charlotte’s backup quarterback last week and the Terrapin defense as a whole has yet to force a turnover, so Mordecai should be able to put pressure on the Terrapins on Saturday night.
Taulia Tagovailoa will likely lead the Terrapins to multiple scoring drives, but SMU should have enough defensively to limit the Maryland scoring and keep this game close. The SMU defense returns most of its production from a unit that was good up front last season, recording 27 sacks and ranking top 40 in opposing rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt. However, the pass defense was lacking and needed attention. In an attempt to fix the leaky secondary, SMU brought in multiple transfers as well as a new defensive coordinator, Scott Symons – who deploys a formation with an extra defensive back – which should make SMU better against the pass while forcing more turnovers. The Mustangs match up well with the Terrapins on paper and are very capable of going into College Park and stealing a win under the lights. For what it is worth, Mordecai has already shown the ability to lead SMU to victory on the road against a Power 5 opponent when he overcame 3 interceptions at TCU last year in a 42-34 Mustang win. Furthermore, the Terrapins have shown a tendency to hurt themselves through 2 games as they rank outside the top 80 in penalties per game and penalty yards per game. I like SMU here both on the spread and the moneyline.
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