Caleb Wilfinger
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College football returned last weekend, and it delivered in a big way. The first full slate of games featured highs and lows for fans and bettors alike, and we’re back again this week. We have a full slate of games on Saturday, including a number of intriguing contests. Alabama takes on Texas, Florida hosts Kentucky and Tennessee visits Pittsburgh, just to name a few. But look further down the board and you’ll find value on a few games that are off the beaten path.
Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Kansas State -7 (-120)
Air Force -17 (-110)
Iowa State ML (+155)
Parlay odds: +792
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this play we are going with two favorites against the spread and one underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 2 matchups
Kansas State -7 (-120) over Missouri
To lead off our Saturday mega parlay, we’re going with Kansas State laying a touchdown over Missouri. I’ve been extremely high on this Kansas State team all offseason, and the Wildcats should show up in this nonconference spot. Head coach Chris Klienman is an extremely undervalued coach against the spread, posting a 23-13 ATS record since 2019. Kansas State is also 7-3 against the number in nonconference games since 2019, and this could be the best offense Klienman’s had at his disposal. Adrian Martinez is the perfect quarterback to thrive in this new system ran by program legend Collin Klien. Both he and Deuce Vaughn form a dynamic rushing attack that went for 318 yards and 8.37 yards per rush in Week 1.
Missouri’s defensive front was solid in its opener against Louisiana Tech, but it will be tested on Saturday. The Wildcats defense created a ton of havoc in Week 1, forcing 6 South Dakota turnovers. While some regression can be expected, Missouri also turned the ball over 3 times last week, so the Tigers can’t be expected to play mistake-free football. Look for the Kansas State offense to keep humming en route to a victory by at least a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Missouri vs Kansas State predictions.
Air Force -17 (-110) over Colorado
I’m all-in on Air Force this week and I feel extremely confident in my position. This is a complete mismatch in terms of one team’s strength versus their opponents weakness. Air Force looked like a well-oiled machine against Northern Iowa, while Colorado was dominated by TCU in a 25-point loss. But it’s how the Buffaloes lost that gives me confidence for this contest. Not only was Colorado’s offense painfully bad, but the Buffaloes defense was demolished by the TCU ground game, allowing 9.17 yards per play and 275 rushing yards. For the game, the Horned Frogs held a whopping 60% success rate on the ground.
The challenge won’t get any easier against Air Force. The Falcons have an extremely efficient offense and it showed in Week 1, as they racked up 594 yards on the ground. This was good for a whopping 9.90 yards per rush. As it stands, there’s even room for positive regression for Air Force, as the Falcons committed 3 turnovers in their victory. That spells trouble for Colorado. TCU wore out the Buffaloes on the ground last week, and I expect Air Force to do the same at home. This line should be closer to a 3-touchdown margin.
Be sure to get our college football best bets for Week 2!.
Iowa State ML (+155) over Iowa
For the final leg of our mega parlay, we’re going with Iowa State over Iowa in the CyHawk rivalry. No team looked worse in a win last week than Iowa. The Hawkeyes needed a pair of safeties to knock off South Dakota State 7-3 to open the season. Last season’s problems on offense remained, with Spencer Petras looking terrible as the Hawkeyes quarterback. For the game, Iowa had 185 yards of offense and 3.1 yards per play. Enter a much more talented Iowa State team that has been itching to knock off its in-state rival for the last 6 seasons. Matt Campbell and company typically perform better when less is expected of them, so I think it’s a plus that the Cyclones are under the radar this year after losing a ton of production from 2021. This one should be an ugly, low-scoring game so I’ll take a shot on Iowa State at this plus money price.
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