Sam Avellone
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Another week, another Saturday college football parlay. With so much action on Saturday this week, there are tons of parlay options. However, there are 3 spots that stood out as the most valuable relative to their current odds. I parlayed those college football best bets together in hopes of securing a massive Week 2 payout, and will analyze each of the legs below. Let’s break down my college football parlay, while you can also check out our CFB picks for all of Saturday’s big matchups.
Oklahoma -28 (-108)
Colorado vs Nebraska Over 56.5 (-110)
Mississippi State ML (+185)
NCAAF parlay odds: +939
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Oklahoma Sooners -28 over Houston Cougars (-110)
This game opened around -27 and immediately ticked up to -29 or -30 before settling around -28, where it is now. At that key number, Oklahoma is in play against the spread when it hosts the Houston Cougars in Willie Fritz’s first road game as a power conference head coach. The Cougars did not start the season on the right note, as they accumulated less than 250 total yards and averaged just 1.5 yards per rush at home against UNLV last week. I’m expecting much of the same against the Sooners.
Simply put, it’s hard to envision Houston’s offense dramatically improving in the matter of a week – especially on the road against an SEC opponent that has a significant talent advantage over Houston and the team it lost to by 20 points in Week 1. For reference, the Sooners are 7th in 247’s Team Talent Composite while Houston is 67th and UNLV is 85th. They also returned 86% of their defensive production, which should overwhelm Houston quarterback Donovan Smith – who completed less than 47% of his passes, had 3 turnover-worthy plays and threw 2 interceptions against his Mountain West foe last week.
Read our full Houston vs Oklahoma prediction
Colorado Buffaloes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Over 56.5 (-110)
Pace may be slower than average in this game, but there should be plenty of explosive plays that result in points or at least put these offenses into scoring situations. With an offense that passes the ball at a top-10 rate, the Buffaloes rely heavily on Shedeur Sanders’ arm. He picked up right where he left off last year as a volume passer, throwing the ball 34 times in Week 1 – 11 more times than the ‘Buffs ran the ball. Furthermore, he averaged 13.1 yards per pass, proving Colorado’s desire to push the ball down the field. Nebraska presents a much stiffer test than North Dakota State all around, but it’s going to be difficult to completely shut down the Colorado passing attack. Sanders is very accurate, and his core of wide receivers is extremely talented – maybe the best in the country. They should score, even if it’s not enough to cover.
The Cornhuskers are unlikely to meet much resistance from the Colorado defense in this matchup. The Buffaloes were supposed to have a revamped defense, but it was much of the same in Week 1 against the Bison. Colorado yielded nearly 450 total yards and allowed Cam Miller to average 11.2 yards per pass. Furthermore, NDSU possessed the ball for 12 more minutes than Colorado. Nebraska’s rushing attack will be up against an undersized Colorado defensive line, so it should find success in between the tackles and put freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in positive situations on passing downs. As such, I like both offenses to score 4+ times and will take the over at a better number than opening.
Read our full Colorado vs Nebraska prediction
Mississippi State Bulldogs ML over Arizona State Sun Devils (+185)
Mississippi State and Arizona State had impressive showings in Week 1, but I am much more wary of the Sun Devils’ result than the Bulldogs’. Arizona State forced 3 turnovers and scored 14 points directly off those turnovers via defensive touchdowns, which is going to be hard to replicate against Mississippi State. Although they are power-rated near the bottom of the SEC, the Bulldogs are quite a step up in class for the Sun Devils after playing Wyoming in Week 1.
Transfer quarterback Blake Shapen seems to have settled into first-year head coach Jeff Lebby’s notable Veer ‘n Shoot offense very nicely, throwing for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for 44 yards and another score against FCS Eastern Kentucky last week. Given his coaching experiences under Art Briles, Jeff Heupel and Lane Kiffin, Lebby has coordinated highly productive offenses throughout his career – which makes me think the Bulldogs will find ways to score against this Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils are starting 6 transfers on that side of the ball, including multiple pieces in the secondary that had below-average coverage grades and yielded a catch on more than 60% of targets last season. A veteran quarterback like Shapen should be able to take advantage. I have this game much closer to a PK than where it is now, so I’ll roll the dice on the money line to round out our college football parlay while boosting its odds a bit.
Read our full Mississippi State vs Arizona State prediction
