Caleb Wilfinger
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After Week 1 delivered a ton of excitement, we should be in for a terrific Week 2 of college football. Last week featured some wild finishes, exciting games between ranked teams and unlikely upsets across the Power 5 and Group of 5 alike. In all, it was a weekend that delivered on the promise of what should be a great college football season.
We’ve got plenty of games to choose from this week and I have built a 3-leg college football parlay of my favorite plays. I cashed my first mega parlay of the season at +610 odds in Week 1, so let’s keep the momentum going! Without any further ado, let’s look at the 3 components of our NCAAF mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
NC State +7.5 (-112)
Texas Tech ML (+210)
Miami FL ML (+150)
NCAAF parlay odds: +1366
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay we are going with an underdog against the spread, an underdog on the money line and one favorite against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
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NC State Wolfpack +7.5 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-112)
As my colleague Sam Avellone pointed out in his underdog best bets, this line feels a tad inflated due to NC State’s struggles against UConn and Notre Dame’s dominance over its first 2 games. However, the reality is that we have not seen Notre Dame play a team that is anywhere near its level to this point. Not only is this the first true road game for the Irish, it comes against a defensive coordinator familiar who is with quarterback Sam Hartman and his tendencies. If NC State can establish its defensive game plan early on, it’s hard not to like the home underdog with the points in this one.
Wolfpack offensive coordinator Robert Anae has been reunited with Brennan Armstrong to push the ball downfield more, similar to when the duo was paired together at University of Virginia. That Cavaliers team boasted an elite passing offense and Armstrong’s ability under center and his familiarity with Anae’s scheme makes me confident in the Wolfpack’s ability to stretch Notre Dame’s unproven secondary. Past results would also tell us that Hartman’s previous struggles against defensive coordinator Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 defense is no fluke, and we can expect him to have issues once again on Saturday. This should be a close, low-scoring affair — so I love the Wolfpack this week.
Get our college football picks for all of the Week 2 matchups!
Texas Tech Red Raiders ML over Oregon Ducks (+210)
This is a classic instance of a “buy low, sell high” spot, one that I’ve frequently targeted in my pieces over the last couple of seasons. The Red Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Wyoming last week after surrendering a 17-0 first-half lead. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Oregon Ducks demolished Portland State, scoring 81 points on their home field to start off the season with a win. Due to how differently Week 1 went for these teams, I believe we’re now getting value on a Red Raiders team that will be extremely motivated to knock off the Ducks and essentially save their hopes of having a massive season and getting to a New Year’s Six bowl, a mark that many fans and analysts thought they could achieve in the preseason.
To put it bluntly, weird stuff happens in Laramie, Wyoming. I was on the Cowboys against the number last week, so I wasn’t all that surprised to see them pull off the outright upset. Bo Nix was sensational last week for Oregon and he should have a terrific season once again. However, Nix is a noticeably weaker QB on the road over the course of his career than at home. I’m expecting a great effort from the hosts in the Tyler Shough revenge game, so let’s take a shot on the Texas Tech money line.
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Miami Hurricanes ML over Texas A&M (+150)
Last season’s matchup between these teams ended in am ugly 1-score victory for Texas A&M despite the fact that the Miami Hurricanes out-gained the Aggies by over 100 yards and accumulated 11 more first downs. Things should be slightly different this time around, as this will be the first road test for Conner Weigman in 2023 against an elite Miami secondary that has the talent on the back end to challenge and potentially overwhelm the young quarterback. Weigman is certainly prone to mistakes, as he had 10 turnover-worthy plays in 157 dropbacks last season and 1 of the 10 highest turnover-worthy play percentages among FBS quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, according to PFF. That doesn’t bode well against Kamren Kinchens and James Williams in the Hurricanes’ secondary.
Conversely, we should know what we’re getting with veteran Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and a Mario Cristobal team that should hold its own on the offensive line and in the run game. The Hurricanes gained 6.9 yards per carry last week and that can be trusted to replicate that again on Saturday. I’m expecting this game to be full of variance, including a couple of decisive turnovers swinging the contest in either direction. Therefore I’ll take the underdog on the money line.
Be sure to read our full Miami vs Texas A&M predictions
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