Sam Avellone
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With just 2 FBS matchups on the docket, Friday night of college football Week 2 offers a small appetizer of games before Saturday’s massive slate. BYU travels to SMU for a non-conference showdown, while Duke travels to the Chicago area for a matchup with Northwestern on the lake. Make sure you check Pickswise throughout the weekend and season for college football picks on every FBS college football game, as well our college football best bets, but for now, let’s dive into our CFB parlay picks for tonight.
SMU -11.5 (-110)
Northwestern ML (-135)
NCAAF parlay odds: +232
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SMU Mustangs -11.5 over BYU Cougars (-110)
I can’t help but think there is a bit of value on SMU because of their lackluster Week 0 performance at Nevada. Despite the Mustangs winning by just 5 points, they out-gained the Wolf Pack 408-298 and held their opponent to 3.4 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per pass. Their defense was not an issue in that game, and their offense came to life in Week 1 against Houston Christian. With 2 games under their belt, the Mustangs should be full steam ahead when they host BYU on Friday night on ESPN2.
SMU’s offense is the unit that’s talked about most when it comes to Rhett Lashley’s squad, but this game against BYU may be dominated by the Mustang defense. SMU returned 6 of its 7 best pieces in the secondary, so the Mustangs should successfully limit BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff through the air. Retzlaff was solid last week against an FCS opponent, but he left a bit to be desired last year. For reference, he completed only 50% of his passes and had 9 turnover-worthy plays in 4 games in 2023 – all against Big 12 opponents at the time. BYU’s rushing attack probably won’t be much better either, as SMU bolstered the interior of its defensive line with the additions of Tank Booker, Jared Harrison-Hunte, Mike Lockhart and Jonathan Jefferson from other power conference programs. The Mustangs have been ferocious against the run so far this season, yielding fewer than 200 combined rushing yards in their first 2 games.
The Cougars gave up at least 31 points in every road game last season, meaning they will have to score more than 3 touchdowns if they want to have a chance to cover much less win. However, they failed to surpass even 11 points in 3 of their road games in 2023, which doesn’t instill much confidence in this matchup. Given SMU’s perceived advantage defensively, I don’t think the Cougars will have enough to keep this game within the number and would take SMU up to -13.5. For what it’s worth, the Mustangs have covered 8 of their last 12 as double digit favorites dating back to last season.
Read our full BYU vs SMU prediction
Northwestern Wildcats ML over Duke Blue Devils (-135)
Northwestern opened its season with a promising showing against a Miami (OH) team that should be in the hunt to win the MAC. It was low-scoring and ugly, but the Wildcats were efficient on the ground against a defense that returned 2 all-conference linebackers and 2 linemen that combined for 10 sacks a year ago. Transfer dual-threat quarterback Mike Wright was decent through the air and dangerous with the ball in his hands. He ran for 65 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 carries, leading the team in yards per carry ahead of running back Cam Porter – who gained 63 yards on 13 carries. Both Wright and Porter should find lanes to run against Duke, who had to replace 5 of its top defensive linemen, Mike Elko and Tyler Santucci in the offseason. New coach Manny Diaz is defensive-minded, but with so many new faces on this unit, it’s going to take time for Duke’s defense to consistently perform against FBS programs.
Unlike the Blue Devils, the Wildcats return almost their entire front 7 from last season. They showed their upside in Week 1 when they held the Redhawks to 267 total yards and 40 rushing yards on 24 attempts, while constantly applying pressure to Brett Gabbert – who was sacked 3 times and hit another 3 times per PFF. Northwestern’s front should be able to apply plenty of pressure to Duke’s backfield on Friday night given the fact that the Blue Devils have a reconstructed offensive line, a new quarterback and a new offensive system. Maalik Murphy was solid last week, but he was not efficient when he faced pressure from Elon. In fact, Murphy completed just 1 out of 6 passes for 6 yards on the 6 pressures he faced last week with 2 turnover-worthy plays and 1 interception per PFF. Duke’s offense could be tough to watch in this matchup, so give me Northwestern at its makeshift lakefront stadium just outside Chicago on Friday night.
Read our full Duke vs Northwestern prediction
