Caleb Wilfinger
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It was so great to have college football back in full, and Week 1 certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. How will Week 2 deliver an encore? We’re just a few hours away from finding out.
With the chaos of Week 1 in the rearview mirror and the second week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into the Week 2 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. While I didn’t get off to a great start in Week 0, I got back on track with a 4-1 weekend in Week 1, so let’s keep the momentum going! Friday night’s slate isn’t the biggest, primarily due to the NFL game going on in Brazil. However, there are a couple of games that I do like, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for this Week 2 schedule of games on Friday.
Lock in our college football parlay picks for Friday’s action
BYU Cougars +11.5 over SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.
This is a game where I ultimately have the home favorite winning, but the margin won’t be as comfortable as this line would suggest. Following a Week 0 outing in which it struggled mightily with Nevada as nearly a 4-touchdown favorite, SMU got back on track in a major way with a resounding 59-7 victory over Houston Christian in Week 1. The Mustangs actually looked like the talented and confident group that I thought they would be coming into the season, but is that a sign of things to come or just a sign of the weakness of their opponent? The jury might still be out on that one, but we’ll get a good data point to refer to on Friday when SMU hosts a BYU team that has historically thrived in the underdog role on the road in September. While the Mustangs are 9-3 over their last 12 games as a double-digit favorite, I’m a big skeptical that Rhett Lashlee’s team will be able to keep that gravy train rolling on Friday.
BYU was a team that the market was extremely down on heading into its opening week tilt against a very solid FCS opponent in Southern Illinois. However, the Cougars really impressed me in that game, outgaining the Salukis by nearly 300 yards in a dominant 41-13 victory. What was most impressive about that win was the way in which BYU was able to generate consistent offense through the air, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff racked up 348 passing yards and 3 touchdowns on just 30 attempts while posting an ADOT of 13.5. Given that the weakness of this SMU defense is in the secondary, it would serve the Cougars well to stick to that aggressive mindset and focus on generating more explosive plays in order to stay in this game. Defensively, BYU was just 70th in EPA per pass against a season ago, but given that I have real concerns about the SMU offensive line, I do think the Cougars should be able to generate some pressure and make life uncomfortable for Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone in what is just his third start since returning from a serious leg injury. I’ll take all the points with the ‘dog in this one.
Read our full BYU vs SMU prediction
Northwestern Wildcats ML over Duke Blue Devils (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
I would not go into this game expecting a whole lot of offense, but that shouldn’t matter for this wager. Northwestern isn’t a team that I expected to back much heading into this season, but the Wildcats started off their campaign by dictating the pace and controlling their game against the defending MAC champions, Miami (OH). It was an impressive showing by the Wildcats defense, allowing just 4.4 yards per play against a veteran RedHawks group, while the offense struggled mightily in the first quarter before rebounding to string a couple of solid drives together after the break. Ultimately, the Wildcats put on a defensive clinic and it was a performance that should carry over into this week against a Duke team that has all sorts of questions on offense.
Northwestern’s front is the strength of its defense, and I fully expect the Wildcats to be able to apply plenty of pressure to Duke’s backfield in this matchup. I was very low on the Blue Devils coming into the season, and part of my position on their win total under was due to their reconfigured offensive line, to go along with a new quarterback and an entirely new offensive system. Last season’s group was extremely skilled, had a proven leader at quarterback in Riley Leonard and had the benefit of having a great coaching staff. Former Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy was adequate in last week’s win over Elon, but he was not efficient when he faced pressure, much like his numbers in his limited time at Texas. If Murphy is made uncomfortable by this Wildcats defense, it could be a long day for the Duke offense, especially in a game where wind expects to be a serious factor. I’ll take the cheap money line price with Northwestern on the lake.
Read our full Duke vs Northwestern predictions
