Sam Avellone
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There were some underdogs barking pretty loudly in Week 1, as Colorado, Duke, Fresno State, NIU, and Florida State each won their marquee matchups outright while UConn, Utah State, Indiana, Rice, Buffalo, Toledo, Georgia Tech, and Southern Utah covered the spread in theirs. Toledo and Florida State were winners for us last week, but South Carolina fell apart in the second half – leading to a 2-1 result.
Let’s try to replicate the winning ways this week with a new slate full of exciting games including 2 ranked matchups and multiple other high-profile games that feel like ranked matchups.
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Best Week 2 underdog bets
Nebraska Cornhuskers +3 (-110) vs Colorado Buffaloes
Before Colorado’s convincing Week 1 win over TCU, the Buffaloes were listed as about an 8-point underdog on some lookahead lines against Nebraska. Following the win, Colorado skyrocketed to a 3-point favorite at home this Saturday. While the Buffaloes looked great in their win over the Horned Frogs, I am skeptical of the line move. TCU’s defense was one of the weaker units in Week 1, ranking 127th in PFF’s total defense grade and yielding 565 total yards. Shedeur Sanders was able to expose the Horned Frogs throughout the game and finished the day 38/47 with 510 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
Nebraska’s game plan will likely be much different than Sonny Dykes-led TCU game plan heading into Week 1. Matt Rhule and the Cornhuskers should deploy a run-first game plan that is much more methodical than the Horned Frogs’. They will likely attempt to string together long possessions to keep the ball out of Sanders’ hands, utilizing quarterback Jeff Sims as a dual-threat piece rather than a pure passer like TCU’s Chad Morris as well as Gabe Ervin Jr. out of the backfield. The Buffaloes allowed TCU to rush for 262 yards and an average of 7.1 yards per attempt, which makes me believe Nebraska will find running lanes against Colorado’s defense – a unit that ranked 127th against the rush in Week 1.
Sims had plenty of mistakes against Minnesota including 3 interceptions, 1 of which was in the endzone. However, with another week of practice and film, I think Sims can be much better in Rhule’s system against Colorado, which finished 50 spots lower than Minnesota in PFF’s total defense in Week 1. The Buffaloes had all summer to prepare for TCU, but this matchup against Nebraska represents a completely different test with much shorter preparation. I expect the Cornhuskers to be methodical with the ball, win the possession battle, and be more efficient in the red zone against Colorado’s defense. This run-first approach, if successful, will limit the amount of Buffaloes’ plays and should keep Nebraska close throughout.
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North Carolina State Wolfpack +7.5 (-110) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This line feels a tad inflated due to North Carolina State’s close call with UConn and Notre Dame’s dominance in Week 0 and Week 1. However, the reality is that we have not seen Notre Dame truly tested by a team near its level of competition. With this being the first true road game for the Irish, against a defensive coordinator familiar with Sam Hartman and his tendencies, I see value on the home underdog in this matchup. Furthermore, North Carolina State ran a relatively vanilla game plan against UConn in Week 1 consisting of 46 run plays and just 26 pass plays with an aDOT of only 6.7 yards.
Expect offensive coordinator Robert Anae to open up the playbook a bit and for Brennan Armstrong to push the ball more downfield, similar to when the duo was paired together at University of Virginia. In 2021 under Anae, Armstrong was 1 of just 26 qualified FBS quarterbacks with an aDOT of 11 yards or more, finished second in passing yards per game, and propelled the Cavaliers to a top 3 finish in total offense. His previous success with his offensive coordinator makes me confident in the Wolfpack’s abilities to stretch Notre Dame’s untested pass defense, and Hartman’s previous struggles against defensive coordinator Tony Gibson’s fast and athletic 3-3-5 scheme make me think North Carolina State will keep this game close at home.
Miami Hurricanes +4 (-110) vs Texas A&M Aggies
Last year’s matchup between these teams ended in a 17-9 Texas A&M victory and cover in College Station despite the Hurricanes out-gaining the Aggies 392 to 264 and accumulating 11 more first downs. This year, I expect things to be slightly different with this game being played in Miami Gardens. While the Hurricanes do not have much of a true home-field advantage, this will be the first road test for Weigman in 2023 against an elite pair of safeties in Kamren Kinchens and James Williams. Weigman is prone to mistakes, as he had 10 turnover-worthy plays in 157 dropbacks last season and 1 of the 10 highest turnover-worthy play percentages among FBS quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks. Conversely, Kinchens and Williams both finished in the top 10 in pass coverage among all qualified FBS safeties last season while each of them yielded an aDOT of 7.5 yards or less. With Bobby Petrino calling plays now for the Aggies, I expect them to rely heavily on the passing attack given the fact that they passed 34 times against New Mexico compared to just 29 rush attempts despite a 35-7 halftime lead. I am not very confident in Weigman as a passer yet, so I am inclined to take the points in this contest and hope for a close game. For what it is worth, Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies are just 3-12 straight up on the road since 2018 not counting the COVID year in 2020.
Honorable Mentions: Texas Longhorns, Rice Owls
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