Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 13 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.
Friday’s slate looks to be another good one and offers two compelling conference championship matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in the Group of 5. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Friday’s action.
Utah ML (+130)
North Texas vs UTSA over 69.5 (-108)
Akron vs Buffalo under 55.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +738
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with an underdog on the money line, and 2 bets on game totals. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Championship Week matchups!
Utah Utes ML (+130) over USC Trojans
I understand that’s its becoming increasingly frustrating to fade USC at this point. The Trojans are 124th in defensive success rate, yet they have one of the best turnover margins in the last 25 years of college football. That’s simply absurd and shouldn’t have continued all season. But it did, and Caleb Williams has been brilliant off-script and out of the pocket this season. However, the Trojans’ lone loss this season came against Utah and the Utes’ recipe was simple: control the line of scrimmage and find Dalton Kincaid. Cam Rising torched an awful USC defense and Kincaid had one of the best games of his career in the process. Considering that Utah’s offense is 4th in the nation in success rate and 8th in net points per drive, another matchup against this atrocious USC defense should be a welcome one.
While the health of Kincaid is a concern for Utah, he is expected to play on Friday. The Trojans offense will get theirs, but Utah’s defense is 22nd in EPA/pass and 34th in passing success rate, so don’t expect a career day from Williams here. Seeing as USC was a 3.5-point road underdog in Salt Lake City 6 weeks ago, I just can’t get there with this line adjustment of nearly a touchdown. This game is still being played on a neutral field and Utah should hold a couple of huge advantages over the Trojans on both sides of the ball. In a game that could come down to who has the ball last, I’ll ride with the undervalued Utes here.
Check out our full Utah Utes vs USC Trojans predictions
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners over 69.5 (-108)
There were only 9 points scored in the first half of the meeting between these teams earlier this season, before a 49-point second half showed just how explosive these offenses can be. Both veteran quarterbacks are coming off very successful seasons throwing the football, and it’s showed on the stat sheet. North Texas quarterback Austin Aune and UTSA quarterback Frank Harris combined for over a whopping 6,600 passing yards and 58 passing touchdowns this fall. These quarterbacks shouldn’t have any problems seeing success through the air against these awful secondaries. UTSA sits at 100th in the country in passing yards allowed and total yards allowed per game. The Mean Green aren’t much better, as they’re 123rd in the country in yards allowed and 112th in the country in passing yards allowed. This game screams points on both sides.
Check out our full North Texas vs UTSA Roadrunners predictions
Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls under 55.5 (-110)
In the only non-championship game of the evening, Akron and Buffalo are making up a game from earlier this season that was canceled due to a snowstorm. Neither team has much to play for, which would traditionally have me leaning toward an over. However, this Akron offense is just dreadful. The Zips are 91st in net points per drive, 94th in offensive EPA margin and 123rd in EPA per rush, per College Football Data. Conversely, the Bulls defense is 40th in success rate and 29th in EPA per rush. This sets up for a lopsided matchup in which Buffalo can completely shut down Akron. So while the Bulls should see success against an Akron defense that is 115th in passing success rate, don’t expect the Zips to contribute much to this total.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
