Sam Avellone
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Last week was disappointing for 2 reasons. First, it was the end of the college football regular season. Second, it was the first 0-3 result of the year in this weekly article. While disappointing, we were very close to a 3-0 sweep. Ohio State failed to cover because of a missed extra point before halftime, Texas A&M failed to cover by the hook because of a failed 2-point attempt (+13 was widely available a day or 2 after publication so hopefully some got that number) and South Carolina failed to cover by 2 points despite holding Clemson to 0 offensive touchdowns. Despite the unfortunate results, I am still 22-16-1 this season with 2 picks remaining instead of 3 due to the small slate.
Thank you to those who followed along this season. I hope you enjoyed reading every week as much as I enjoyed writing! Let’s get to the picks.
Best Week 14 underdog bets
SMU Mustangs +3.5 (-110) over Tulane Green Wave
The injury to SMU quarterback Preston Stone is unfortunate and will make this game much harder for the Mustangs to win. However, they are still plenty capable of at least covering the spread with Kevin Jennings under center given how much talent the Mustangs have around him. SMU’s offensive line has been very good, ranking in the top 10 in power success rate as well as top 40 in stuff rate and line yards since Week 8. For what it’s worth, PFF also lists SMU’s line as the best run-blocking unit and the second-best pass-blocking unit in the AAC. The success in the trenches provides SMU’s offense with the 4th-lowest yielded havoc rate in the last 6 weeks, and it should give Jennings plenty of time in the pocket against Tulane’s front 7. As far as playmakers go, Jennings will have plenty at his disposal. SMU has 6 pass catchers with at least 20 receptions and 350 yards along with 3 running backs who have each carried the ball at least 75 times while scoring at least 3 touchdowns and accumulating more than 400 total yards.
The Mustangs have been just as good defensively as they have been offensively. They are top 10 nationally in PPA per play and success rate allowed since Week 8, and they have allowed fewer than 3.5 points per scoring opportunity in non-garbage time in that period as well. SMU does a fantastic job of limiting opponents on standard downs, forcing them into predictable passing plays — which could be an issue for Tulane in this matchup. Tulane will be without its 2nd-leading receiver in Lawrence Keys III and it could be without Jha’Quan Jackson, too. SMU is top 15 in sacks and tackles for loss, so expect the Mustangs to put plenty of pressure on Tulane’s offensive line — a unit that has struggled in recent weeks. Since Week 8, Tulane’s line is 86th in line yards, 89th in stuff rate and 121st in power success — which means running back Makhi Hughes could struggle finding running lanes against a SMU front that is in the top 30 in PPA per rush and rush success allowed since the end of October.
Stone’s absence will be felt, but the Mustangs have plenty of talented pieces that will make this game winnable. Yulman Stadium is a very difficult place to win, but I expect a motivated effort from SMU – who figures to be anxious to finish this season with an AAC title before jumping to the ACC in 2024. Speaking of jumping to a new location, head coach Willie Frtiz has been a popular name thrown around in the offseason coaching carousel. Maybe some of his attention was elsewhere this week? Who knows, but it is an interesting angle to consider.
Alabama Crimson Tide +5.5 (-110) over Georgia Bulldogs
This is the premier matchup of the weekend, and I think it could end up being a back-and-forth game with plenty of points. Alabama’s offense is capable of giving Georgia’s defense fits, as the Bulldogs are lower than you would expect in their defensive efficiency numbers in the last 6 weeks. They are outside the top 50 in PPA per play, success rate and explosiveness allowed since Week 8, and have been bad on standard downs in that time — ranking outside the top 100 in PPA per opposing standard down play.
The Crimson Tide caught fire offensively in the final portion of the season, scoring at least 34 points in every game down the stretch except at Auburn last week. Some of those points were scored by the defense, but the Tide’s offensive improvement is undeniable considering they are top 15 nationally in PPA, success rate and explosiveness since Week 8. They have been efficient via both the rush and the pass, but the ground game figures to be their path to success in this particular matchup. Georgia’s defense surprisingly ranks 124th in rush success allowed and 128th in PPA per rush since Week 8, so look for Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams to get plenty of carries in an effort to exploit those deficiencies. Jalen Milroe should get plenty of carries too considering Georgia has shown some vulnerabilities against mobile quarterbacks like Payton Thorne and Haynes King in previous games.
When teams are as good as Georgia and Alabama, there are only certain areas you can nitpick to try to find betting value. The Bulldogs are certainly 1 of the 2 best teams in the country, and they have been electric offensively for most of the season – but they also had a very manageable path to another conference championship berth with a schedule Sagarin ranks 56th nationally. Alabama will be by far the best team Georgia has played to this point, and I think the Tide can match the Bulldogs on the scoreboard throughout this game. This one could be decided by 3 points or less either way. As such, I will take the points with Alabama.
