Sam Avellone
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Welcome to conference championship weekend! The college football regular season has officially wrapped up, and it is finally time to find out which teams will be crowned conference champions. A couple of these games have playoff implications as well, so Ohio State and Alabama will be watching from home in hopes of earning an at-large bid despite being idle this weekend.
With a much smaller slate of games to choose from, here are 2 of my favorites underdog picks for conference championship Saturday.
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Week 14 best underdog bets – conference championship edition
Kansas State Wildcats +2 (-110) over TCU
These teams already met earlier this season at TCU. Kansas State suffered an injury to starting quarterback Adrian Martinez in the first quarter, which led to Will Howard’s first appearance of the season. Once Howard entered the game, he immediately marched the offense down the field and scored on a 28 yard touchdown pass to Kade Warner. The Wildcats led by as many as 18 points in the first half and went into halftime up 28-17, but then the wheels fell off and the Wildcats never scored again. Kansas State suffered a second quarterback injury in the third quarter – this time to Howard. Third-string quarterback Jake Rubley came in for the injured Howard, but promptly threw an interception when the Wildcats so desperately needed to score in response to TCU’s 2 post-halftime touchdowns. Howard re-entered the game in the fourth quarter, but he was clearly not 100%.
TCU almost slipped up a couple times, but the Horned Frogs remain undefeated and their playoff hopes are still alive. Kansas State, on the other hand, is 4-1 straight up since the loss to TCU with all 4 wins coming by at least 17 points. The Wildcats have not skipped a beat with Howard running the offense, as they finished the regular season with a top 30 rating in both drive efficiency and touchdown rate per Football Outsiders while scoring at least 31 points in all of Howard’s starts. A good bit of that offensive success is because of running back Deuce Vaughn, but Howard has been able to make big plays when needed and has thrown 13 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions in 5 games.
TCU is in an interesting situation in this game. Are the Horned Frogs a lock for the playoff even if they lose this game? Probably. So how will that affect their performance in this game? That remains to be seen, but I think it will play a factor. In any case, the Wildcats will have plenty of motivation to ruin TCU’s undefeated season and win the Big 12 while they are at it. Kansas State boasts a slightly better defense in this matchup, ranking in the top 30 in opposing drive efficiency and opposing touchdown rate while leading the Big 12 in scoring allowed. The Wildcats also rank above the Horned Frogs in overall defensive success rate and net points per drive allowed, which should benefit Kansas State in a rematch. This will likely be a highly competitive and entertaining football game, so I am happy to take the points with the better defensive team looking for revenge.
Fresno State Bulldogs +3 (-105) over Boise State
Fresno State will have to travel back to Boise State for a second time this season, where the Bulldogs lost to the Broncos 40-20 in on October 8th. However, things are going to look very different this time around. In the first contest, sophomore Logan Fife started for Fresno State’s star quarterback Jake Haener, who was injured at the time. Fife was unable to lead the Bulldogs to so much as 250 total yards, as he threw for 134 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions while completing just 14/25 passes. Fife might turn out to be a good quarterback down the road, but he is a severe downgrade from Haener at this point in time. PFF ranks Haener as a top 10 passer in the country, throwing for 17 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. In fact, Haener has thrown 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions since returning to the lineup on October 29th, with both of those interceptions coming in his first game back. His last 4 games have been flawless with 10 touchdowns and no picks.
The Broncos are very strong defensively. They rank 4th in overall defensive success rate, and they are the top-rated team in defensive success rate against the pass according to CFBGraphs. However, they have not seen a quarterback quite as good as Haener all year. With Haener on the field, Fresno State’s offense should be much better than it was in the first meeting against Boise State. Oddsmakers seem to think so as well considering this line opened around 5 points and quickly dropped to 3 across the board despite Boise State having a 20-point win over Fresno State under its belt already this season. I will ride with Haener and the Bulldogs in what should be another fascinating conference championship game.
In case you are wondering, a Kansas State-Fresno State moneyline parlay pays +381.
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