Sam Avellone
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College football Week 13 begins with a 3-game slate of MACtion on Tuesday, November 19. The first game of the night kicks off at 7:00 pm ET when Akron makes the short journey to Kent State to take on the Golden Flashes, who have yet to win a game this season. Then, Western Michigan hopes to keep its MAC Championship aspirations alive when it makes the trip to Mount Pleasant to play the Chippewas of Central Michigan. In the nightcap, Miami (OH) attempts to maintain its spot tied atop the MAC standings when it hosts Northern Illinois. Let’s get into my college football best bets for Tuesday’s MAC slate, and make sure you check the rest of our college football picks and CFB predictions for all of Week 13’s biggest matchups.
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Akron Zips -5.5 first half over Kent State Golden Flashes (-115)
Laying any number with Akron isn’t something I advise doing very often, but this is one of the few spots in which I don’t mind it. Kent State has yet to win a game this season and the Flashes struggle to score with any sort of consistency. In fact, they have scored just 7 points in their last 2 games, and rank 128th out of 134 teams in offensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 7. Akron, on the other hand, has had multiple first-half scoring drives in all but 1 of its conference games.
The Zips also have a dramatic advantage on the defensive end, as they yield 9.5 fewer points and nearly 100 fewer yards per game than the Flashes. Furthermore, they boast a top-60 defensive PPA since Week 7, while Kent’s defense ranks 122nd in opposing PPA per play in that time. For what it’s worth, Akron has scored an average of 13.7 first-half points in its last 3 games, and Kent State averaged just 4.7 first-half points in its last 3 contests. On the defensive end, the Golden Flashes have given up an average of 25 first-half points in their last 3 games, which is nearly 10 points greater than the average amount of first-half points the Zips have given up in their 3 most recent matchups. Playable to -6.
Find out our Western Michigan vs Central Michigan prediction for tonight’s other MACtion matchup
Miami (OH) RedHawks -2 over Northern Illinois Huskies (-110)
The Miami RedHawks are on a roll of late, winning 5 straight games since their loss at Toledo the first weekend of October. As it stands, that is the only blemish on Miami’s conference record. These are 2 of the best defenses in the MAC, but I like what Miami offers as an all-around package in this game more than Northern Illinois. The RedHawks and the Huskies are both top 25 nationally in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 7, yielding fewer than 2.6 points per scoring opportunity in that time.
However, Miami has a bigger advantage offensively. Not only are the RedHawks better in yards per play margin and turnover margin, but they are top 20 in offensive PPA since the middle of October while scoring more than 4.2 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line. For comparison, the Huskies are outside the top 70 in offensive PPA in that time, scoring an average of 3.5 points per scoring opportunity. I power rate Miami as a 4.5-point favorite in this game, so I am happy to lay less than a field goal with the home team against a Northern Illinois team playing on the road for the 4th time in its last 6 outings. Playable to -3.
Read our full Northern Illinois vs Miami (Ohio) prediction
