Sam Avellone
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The final week of the college football regular season is upon us, which means we have one more chance to cash a mega parlay before the conference championship weekend and bowl season arrive. It’s rivalry week, so expect some chaos and a couple of surprising winners this weekend – as if we have not had much chaos across college football of late! You know the drill by now, so let’s get right to analyzing each leg of the Week 13 college football mega parlay, which is available at +1164 odds. You can also check out our college football picks for all of Saturday’s big matchups.
Texas A&M ML (+310)
Arizona -10.5 (-115)
Jacksonville State ML (-154)
NCAAF mega parlay odds: +1164
Texas A&M Aggies ML over LSU Tigers (+310)
I’m going to start off with what will be the leg with the longest odds. As I highlighted in my game preview and underdogs articles, I love Texas A&M to cover the double-digit spread in this spot. However, I think the Aggies have a real shot to win this game, too. This is an incredibly sleepy spot for the Tigers, playing at home at 11:00 am ET on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Moreover, the Tigers do not have much to play for considering they cannot win the division nor make the College Football Playoff. Following the firing of Jimbo Fisher, the Aggies are playing freely on offense with sophomore quarterback Jaylen Henderson, who has upside as a rusher – which is an added wrinkle to the offense. The Aggies have scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games, and should be able to replicate those numbers against an LSU defense that is 107th in PPA, 90th in success rate and 91st in points per opportunity since Week 7.
Texas A&M has been great on a down-to-down basis defensively in recent weeks, and has held opponents out of the end zone in scoring situations – so I think the Aggies have a legitimate shot to win this game. They are in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to BCFToys, which is good news for them given LSU failed to score 30 in both of its previous games against top 20 defenses in Florida State and Alabama. In fact, those were the only 2 games LSU scored fewer than 30.
Read our full Texas A&M vs LSU predictions
Arizona Wildcats -10.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (-115)
You can expect the passing attacks to be in the spotlight in the Duel in the Desert on Saturday. Unfortunately for Arizona State, that means Arizona is in a favorable spot given the Wildcats are much better than the Sun Devils through the air on both sides of the ball. Since Week 7, Arizona is 33rd in PPA per pass allowed while Arizona State is 106th. Meanwhile, Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has the 2nd-highest completion percentage among 12 qualified quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in the Pac-12, as well as the 3rd-lowest amount of turnover-worthy plays. He should have success against an Arizona State defense that is 8th in the conference in pass rush and coverage according to PFF. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have yielded at least 27 points in every home game against FBS opponents this season.
The Wildcats typically take advantage of their scoring opportunities. In fact, the Wildcats have scored 4.5 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line since Week 7, compared to just 2.73 for the Sun Devils. For what it’s worth, Arizona is top 35 in PPA and total scoring opportunities allowed since the middle of October, so the inefficient Arizona State offense is likely to struggle throughout. I make this line -14, so I am comfortable laying more than 10 with the Wildcats.
Find out our expert’s college football best bets of the week
Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML over New Mexico State Aggies (-154)
New Mexico State just beat the Tigers in Auburn last week, so why would we fade the Aggies at home in their regular season finale? Because they already earned their spot in the Conference USA title game due to the unpopular NCAA rule that forbids FBS newcomers to play in the postseason. That means Jacksonville State, despite carrying the same number of conference losses as New Mexico State, will not play in the conference championship even if it wins on Saturday. It also means the Gamecocks will not play in a bowl game, unless there were not enough bowl-eligible teams. All that being said, this is Jacksonville State’s bowl game, and I think that motivation will be palpable for the Gamecocks on Saturday.
Aggie quarterback Diego Pavia is questionable for this game. With nothing to lose for New Mexico State, it would not surprise me if he sat out, but he played under the same circumstances at Auburn last week – so expect him to play. In any case, I like Jacksonville State’s defense in this matchup. The Gamecocks are top 35 in defensive PPA since Week 7, as well as top 50 in defensive success rate. The Aggies are in those same ranges too, but they struggle against the run – which is not a good trait to have against a Jacksonville State offense that has 1 of the 10 highest rush rates in non-garbage nationally in the last month and a half. For reference, the Aggies are 97th in PPA per rush and 83rd in rush success rate allowed in the last 6 weeks, while the Gamecocks are top 30 nationally in those metrics on the offensive end over that time. With what I consider a motivational advantage and an advantage in the run game, I like Jacksonville State here.
You can also read my best college football underdog bets this week — I’m 22-13-1 this season!
