Sam Avellone
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A top 5 matchup taking place in Columbus isn’t much of a shock, but if someone told you before the season that Ohio State vs Indiana would be a top-5 matchup in the penultimate week of the regular season, they simply would not have believed you. However, that is our reality as college football fans. The Hoosiers and the Buckeyes will effectively play for a place in the Big Ten title game this weekend, and potentially even a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Like every week, we are going to use this marquee matchup as a chance to cash in on a same game parlay. We missed last week’s parlay by one leg (yet again), but this week is a new week. Let’s get to the parlay selections, and don’t forget to find all of our college football picks and CFB predictions for Week 13.
Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Under 53 (-110)
Gee Scott Jr. (OSU) Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kurtis Rourke (IND) Over 199.5 passing yards (-200)
Indiana vs Ohio State Same Game Parlay odds: +470
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Make sure to check their promotions tab, as they have a 20% SGP boost that increases the odds of this parlay to +564!
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Indiana vs Ohio State Under 53 (-110)
This game is going to have a playoff atmosphere, as so much rides on its outcome. In these situations, I always find myself gravitating toward an Under, and the numbers back it up in this particular matchup. Indiana and Ohio State have been elite defensively this season, yielding fewer than 14 points and 260 yards per game — both top 10 marks nationally. That defensive tenancy has not let up in recent weeks, as the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top 20 in defensive PPA and top 15 in opposing points per opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 7. On the offensive side of the ball, these teams tend to operate at a very slow pace. The Hoosiers rank 87th in plays per game and 95th in seconds per play against FBS opponents; the Buckeyes are 110th and 111th, respectively, in those metrics. Elite defensive performance mixed with a slower-than-average pace of play is conducive to an Under in football, especially when there’s a potential playoff berth on the line.
Read our full Indiana vs Ohio State prediction
Gee Scott Jr. (OSU) Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
While Indiana’s defense has been stout, tight ends seem to find success against the Hoosiers. In fact, a tight end has surpassed this number in every one of Indiana’s conference games this year. Ohio State’s Gee Scott Jr. doesn’t have a massive target share, but he has the 2nd-most targets on the team outside of the wide receiver group. He makes the most of those targets, too, boasting an 80% catch rate while averaging 11.5 yards per reception and 6.1 yards after the catch. Scott has surpassed this number in 5 of the 6 conference games that he played in, including the blowout wins over Purdue and Northwestern in which he only caught 1 pass each. Furthermore, he has a reception of at least 11 yards in 4 of those 6 Big Ten matchups. With the injury woes the Buckeyes face on the offensive line, Scott should be in line for multiple targets in this game — putting him in an excellent position to surpass this number yet again.
Kurtis Rourke (IND) Over 199.5 passing yards (-200)
On the arm of Kurtis Rourke, Indiana has been a top 15 passing offense since Week 7. The Hoosiers are 15th in PPA per pass and 3rd in pass success rate outside of garbage time in the last 6 weeks, and Rourke has surpassed this total in all but 1 conference game this season. The only Big Ten game in which he did not pass for at least 200 yards was the blowout win over Nebraska, but he did not play all 4 quarters in that game given the score. He will face arguably the toughest defense on Indiana’s schedule in Ohio State this week, but the Buckeyes have been leaky over the top at various points throughout the season. While they are top 25 in opposing pass PPA and pass success rate, they rank 50th in opposing pass explosiveness outside of garbage time since Week 7 — a weakness on which Rourke can capitalize. I expect coach head coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers to have a solid game-plan to offset the talented Buckeye defensive front, especially considering they are coming into this game off a bye with extra time to prepare.
