Sam Avellone
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Believe it or not, we have reached the penultimate Friday of the college football regular season and will be treated with a 3-game mini slate on the eve of Saturday’s massive card. After cashing an Over for us last Friday, UTSA is a massive favorite this week when it hosts Temple in the first game of the night. Then, Michigan State hosts Purdue with bowl eligibility still within reach for the Spartans. Speaking of Spartans, home underdog San Jose State hosts the UNLV Rebels in the Friday nightcap out west. While there are limited options this week, I was able to find 2 angles that I felt were worth an investment. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to find the rest of our college football picks and CFB predictions for the entire Week 13 slate.
College football Week 13 Friday best bets
UTSA Roadrunners team total over 36.5 vs Temple Owls (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
The UTSA Roadrunners have been on fire offensively in recent weeks, and Temple doesn’t strike me as the team that will slow them down. The Roadrunners have scored at least 38 points in 4 consecutive games and all but 1 home game this season. Meanwhile, Temple has given up at least 38 points in 4 out of 5 road games. This is not terribly surprising given the fact that Temple ranks 103rd in total defense, 122nd in scoring defense and 126th in opposing red zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole. More recently, the Owls are 106th in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 7, as well as 122nd in opposing points per scoring opportunity. They have been particularly poor against the pass, which is the strength of the UTSA offense, and they are likely to give UTSA extra possessions given the fact that they average 3 turnovers per road game against FBS opponents. Look for the Roadrunners to continue their dominant offensive stretch against a porous Temple defense that has nothing to play for being out of reach of bowl eligibility.
Check out our college football best bets for our most confident picks of Week 13
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UNLV Rebels -7.5 over San Jose State Spartans (-106)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel at the time of publishing.
If you watched the infamous “Bad Beats” segment on Monday night, you witnessed a colossal meltdown by San Jose State against Boise State. Catching 14.5 points, the Spartans led 21-14 midway through the 3rd quarter before the Broncos came storming back. Boise State took a 35-21 lead late in the 4th quarter before a pick-6 increased the lead to 42-21 with 1:42 remaining – still plenty of time for the Spartans to get down the field and score to get inside the number for ATS bettors. While they managed to get all the way down the field, they failed to score despite multiple attempts inside the 5-yard line.
After last week’s debacle, I expect this to be a letdown spot for the already bowl-eligible Spartans. The Rebels, who still have an outside chance of earning a Mountain West title berth, are extremely efficient offensively on early downs according to College Football Insiders. This should be advantageous against a Spartan defense that ranks 91st in opposing early downs EPA. Early-down success would also provide the Rebels with ample third-and-manageable situations, helping to preserve their drives and get deep into opposing territory. In fact, they rank 1st nationally in red zone attempts this season, as well as 1st nationally in total scoring opportunities outside of garbage time since Week 7 – and they finish drives with points more often than not. UNLV also has a fairly large advantage in the turnover department, as the Rebels are 3rd nationally in turnover margin per game against FBS opponents, while the Spartans are 87th. Laying points on the road in a late-season conference game can be a scary proposition, but it’s UNLV or nothing for me in this Friday Mountain West showdown.
Read our full-game prediction for UNLV vs San Jose State
