Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Sadly, it has arrived – the final week of the college football regular season. There will be an article next week for conference championships, but the focus is ending the regular season with a few more wins. Last week was a success. We won 2 of the 3 picks, and both of those teams won their games outright. That pushes us to 22-13-1 through 12 weeks with a little bit of work to do if we want to finish the season at least 10 wins above .500. It is rivalry week after all, so some of these underdogs could be barking a bit louder than usual. Let’s dive in.
Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5 (-110) over Michigan Wolverines
Ohio State has been better than Michigan defensively in the last month and a half. While both defenses are in or around the top 15 in most metrics, the Buckeyes rank higher in defensive PPA, success rate and points per opportunity since Week 7. They are also very good defensively on standard downs, and are 13th nationally in PPA per rush allowed – which is going to be crucial against Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Surprisingly, Michigan is 69th in offensive PPA per rush and 80th in rush success rate in non-garbage time since Week 7, and the run game has not been very explosive either. An inefficient running game would put a lot of pressure on J.J. McCarthy in the pocket against a defense that is top 3 nationally in PPA per pass and passing success rate since Week 7. For reference, McCarthy has been pressured on less than 30% of his dropbacks over the last 2 seasons, but he has 14 turnover-worthy plays in that time – including 7 this season.
Ohio State will have the best player on the field in Marvin Harrison Jr., and despite Michigan’s success against the pass – I do not think the Wolverines will be able to limit him. Harrison is an elite route runner that has an incredible awareness about him. He is able to create space between him and his defender with relative ease, and his connection with high school quarterback Kyle McCord has only improved throughout the season. In fact, he is 2nd in the Big Ten in targets and yards per reception with an incredible 6.5 yards after catch per reception. The Wolverines have played just 1 offense that is in the top 65 in PFF’s passing grade, and they have yet to face a wide receiver group as talented as the Buckeyes. Give me Ohio State with the points here, as I could see this being a 3-point game either way.
Be sure to check out our full Ohio State vs Michigan predictions
Texas A&M Aggies +11.5 (-110) over LSU Tigers
Jayden Daniels still might be in the Heisman race, but this could be a sleepy spot for the Tigers – playing at 11:00 A.M. on the Saturday following Thanksgiving without a chance to win the division or earn a trip to the College Football Playoff. The Aggies are no pushover defensively. They rank 6th in defensive PPA and 16th in success rate allowed since Week 7, and they are 17th nationally in BCFToys’ adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. For what it’s worth, LSU failed to score 30 points just twice this season, and both of those performances were against the other top 20 defenses they played in Florida State and Alabama. The Aggies have been very good at preventing opponents from finishing drives, as they give up an average of just 3.08 points every time opposition enters the green zone. Furthermore, they yield a touchdown on just 46.15% of opposing red zone trips. Conversely, the Tigers are 107th in defensive PPA, 90th in success rate and 91st in points per opportunity allowed since Week 7, and they are bottom 15 nationally in opposing touchdown rate this season per BCFToys.
LSU’s offense has been much more productive than Texas A&M’s, but the Aggies have been solid over the last month with 4 consecutive 30-point performances. They are top 45 nationally in points per opportunity since Week 7, and should have plenty of scoring opportunities against LSU’s defense. Plus, sophomore quarterback Jaylen Henderson adds a new wrinkle to the offense with his ability to run. Assuming the Aggies can limit the Tigers’ scoring similar to that of the Seminoles and the Crimson Tide, they should have just enough offensively to at least keep this game within the number and would not surprise me if they won outright.
South Carolina Gamecocks +7.5 (-110) over Clemson Tigers
I noted the magic of Williams-Brice under the lights last week, and it held true in what was an ugly 3-point victory for the Gamecocks. This week will be a bit more challenging though, as the Tigers seek revenge after the Gamecocks ended their playoff hopes last year. However, I do not think Clemson has a situational nor motivational edge in this game given South Carolina needs 1 more win to earn bowl eligibility.
Clemson’s defense is not the same as it once was. The Tigers are last nationally in rush explosives allowed in the last 6 weeks, and they are outside the top 85 in yielded pass explosives as well. Furthermore, the Tigers rank 82nd in points per opportunity allowed in non-garbage time since Week 7, which is not something we are used to seeing from a program that has been one of the nation’s elite for the better part of a decade. The Gamecocks should have enough to score against this version of Clemson’s defense. They have a top 50 offense when it comes to PPA, explosiveness and finishing drives over the last month and a half, and they have been good on standard downs thanks to an improved rushing attack with Mario Anderson. Not to mention, Spencer Rattler’s ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly, which allows him to avoid sacks and take advantage of easy short-yardage gains to the flats or the middle of the field. In fact, Rattler has the 3rd-best turnover-worthy play percentage in the SEC, as well as the 2nd-best adjusted completion percentage. He also has a few big play threats in Xavier Legette, Nyck Harbor and O’Mega Blake – all of whom average more than 13 yards per reception.
Defensively, the Gamecocks have been solid as of late, but the Tigers have not been particularly efficient on the offensive side – especially on the road. For what it’s worth, Clemson is 85th in success rate, 101st in PPA, and 123rd in explosiveness since Week 7, and it has not had much success preventing opposing havoc in that time either. I don’t have much confidence in the Tigers’ ability to win by margin in this specific game, so take the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown for our final underdog bet of the 2023 regular season.
Don’t miss our expert’s NCAAF Week 13 best bets
