Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 11 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.
To kick off this week’s slate, we have some MACtion action on Wednesday. This midweek slate looks to be another good one and offers some compelling matchups. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Wednesday’s action.
Northern Illinois -1.5 (-110)
Western Michigan +10.5 (-110)
Eastern Michigan +7.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +595
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with two underdogs against the spread and one favorite against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Catch our NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week!
Northern Illinois -1.5 (-110) over Miami (Ohio)
What are these teams like? Both are slow and don’t score a ton. Prior to giving up 37 points to Ohio last week, Miami (OH) had gone 6 straight weeks conceding 24 points or less. They are a solid defensive team, which is good news because their offense isn’t impressive at all. Even when starting quarterback Brett Gabbert returned, the RedHawks mostly avoided putting the ball in the air for a few games until last week, when Gabbert threw 26 times for 3 TDs. However, Northern Illinois hasn’t given up many passing yards to anyone, so it is hard to imagine this Miami team will be the exception.
Northern Illinois is built entirely around its dynamic ground game. The Huskies run the ball at about a 2-to-1 ratio, and they do it effectively. That also helps ease the pain at their primary problem area: quarterback. The Huskies have rolled through several QBs this season, and either of the Huskies’ preferred options are questionable heading into Wednesday. Whoever gets the call at QB this week, the Huskies will want to keep the ball on the ground. Miami has a good defense in terms of “points against”, but they are vulnerable against the ground attack, which sets up nicely for NIU here.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Ohio vs Northern Illinois predictions
Western Michigan +10.5 (-110) vs Central Michigan
Western Michigan’s play has been improving steadily, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. This unit has surrendered just 47 total points over their last 3 games while holding those opponents to just 172 passing yards per game. This is all bad news for the Central Michigan Chippewas, who have been an extremely undisciplined offensive unit with 23 turnovers this season. Central Michigan is also dealing with a plethora of injuries, which includes 6 of its offensive players.
Central Michigan’s offense has started to pick up of late, but its defense has still been just as bad as they were to start. This is a unit that has surrendered 27+ points in 6 outings this season while giving up nearly 233 yards per game through the air. For a Western Michigan team that’s struggling mightily offensively, this might be the perfect time for the Broncos to finally get right. The Broncos have covered in each of their last 4 true road games against MAC competition, while the Chippewas are just 1-3-1 against the spread at home this season. This is just too many points in a rivalry game, regardless of how either team has looked up to this point.
Be sure to check out our full Western Michigan vs Central Michigan predictions
Eastern Michigan +7.5 (-110) vs Kent State
The Golden Flashes are not a defensive juggernaut. In fact, they had allowed at least 27 points in their 4 contests leading up to last week. This week they’ll be up against an Eastern Michigan team that has played extremely well week in and week out. Running back Samson Evans has been on an absolute tear of late, scoring 5 touchdowns and averaging 110.5 yards per game. And on the defensive side of the ball, Eastern Michigan is surrendering less than 220 yards per game through the air and have 6 takeaways in its last 3 outings.
The combination of the Eagles’ pass defense along with the lackluster play in that department for Kent State offensively (85th in FBS) gives good reason to believe the Golden Flashes won’t be airing it out that much. Even though Kent State has seen success with the run this season, being one-dimensional is never a good thing for an offense. Kent State won big in their last game, but that appears to be an outlier as they failed to cover in each of their previous 5 contests. The trend has been quite the opposite for the Eagles, who sport a 3-1-1 record ATS over their last 5 games. Given that they’re also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 true road games, take Eastern Michigan to cover in this one.
Be sure to check out our full Eastern Michigan vs Kent State predictions
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