Sam Avellone
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College football Week 12 provides us with another full slate of midweek MACtion starting on Tuesday night when Western Michigan travels to Bowling Green, Ball State heads to Buffalo and Toledo hosts Central Michigan. Each of the home teams are favored in these matchups, which is the polar opposite of last week’s slate when all of the road teams were favored. With 3 games to choose from, I honed in on 2 plays and will briefly analyze each of them for you. Let’s dive in, and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions on all of Week 12’s biggest matchups.
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Western Michigan Broncos team total over 23.5 vs Bowling Green Falcons (-130)
Despite last week’s 42-28 loss to Northern Illinois, the Western Michigan Broncos still have the best offense in the MAC. The Broncos average 41.4 points per conference game, which is the best in the league by a decent margin, and they also lead the MAC in total touchdowns scored against conference opponents (27). They draw a difficult matchup this week on paper with Bowling Green, as the Falcons have the 2nd-best scoring defense in the MAC. They yield just 16.4 points per game against conference opponents and have given up just 8 total touchdowns in 5 conference games. However, all 5 of those games were against the 5 worst offenses in the MAC. In fact, the Falcons have yet to face a conference opponent that averages more than 24 points per game against other MAC teams, so I am hesitant to trust their defensive metrics.
The Broncos are 14th in offensive PPA since Week 6, and they have crossed their opponents’ 40-yard line at the 11th-highest rate nationally outside of garbage time in that span. Furthermore, Western Michigan averages 4.71 points per scoring opportunity. All of these marks are better than any of the MAC offenses Bowling Green has played thus far. Jaden Nixon and the rest of the Western Michigan ground game will be leaned on heavily against this Bowling Green defense, which should be advantageous for the Broncos. For reference, they are 30th in rush PPA and 11th in rush explosiveness outside of garbage time since the beginning of October, while the Falcons’ defense is 76th and 114th in those metrics, respectively, despite a poor schedule of offenses. Additionally, the Broncos have surpassed this number in every MAC game this season. Playable to 24.
Read our full Western Michigan vs Bowling Green prediction
Ball State Cardinals vs Buffalo Bulls Over 53.5 (-110)
Both Buffalo and Ball State are much better offensively than they are defensively. The Bulls and the Cardinals average more than 30 points per conference game, and each defense gives up at least 32 points against MAC opponents. Over the last 6 weeks, the Bulls are 51st in offensive PPA and average more than 4.5 points per scoring opportunity, while the Cardinals are 52nd in offensive PPA and score 4.37 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are 88th in defensive PPA while allowing more than 4 points per scoring opportunity. The Bulls are worse, ranking 111th in defensive PPA while giving up an average of 4.28 points every time their opponent crosses their 40-yard line. Furthermore, both defenses are outside the top 80 in red zone conversion rate allowed.
Pace of play should be able to support ample scoring in this matchup, as the Bulls are top 35 in seconds per play against FBS opponents this season. Meanwhile, Ball State has a top-35 pass rate. These offenses should get up and down the field throughout this game, so I expect plenty of scoring in this one. Playable to 54.5.
Find out our Central Michigan vs Toledo best bet for tonight’s other MAC matchup
