Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 11 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.
Saturday’s slate looks to be another good one and offers a ton of compelling matchups. There is value to be had across the board, including in the Group of 5. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Saturday’s action.
Baylor ML (+122)
Arkansas ML (+114)
Navy +16 (-110)
Parlay odds: +806
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For this parlay, we are going with two underdogs on the money line, and one against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Get our college football picks for all of the big Week 12 matchups!
Baylor ML (+122) over TCU
This could be the best situational spot of the week, with TCU fresh off a season-defining win over Texas while Baylor just looked awful in a loss to Kansas State at home. Therefore, you can expect an inspired effort from the Bears in what could be a sleepy road spot for the Horned Frogs. Baylor will be looking to avenge last season’s loss at TCU in what is a role reversal after the Horned Frogs upset Baylor to ruin the Bears potential chance at a College Football Playoff berth. This is also the 9th straight game for TCU, all of which have been high-stakes contests. Now that the Frogs are in the top 4 of the CFP rankings, all of the pressure is on TCU to win out. And while the Horned Frogs will get their points, Baylor should also see success against TCU’s poor defense. Considering the spot, I think the Bears spoil the dreams of their rival on Senior Day in Waco.
Check out our full TCU vs Baylor predictions
Arkansas ML (+114) over Ole Miss
It’s fair to say that Ole Miss lost its Super Bowl last week, as a win over Alabama could’ve put the Rebels in the drivers’ seat for an SEC West division title. However, after blowing a double-digit lead in the loss, Ole Miss suddenly doesn’t have much to play for. Meanwhile, Arkansas would have absolutely beat LSU a week ago if quarterback KJ Jefferson wasn’t sidelined with an injury. The Razorbacks still need a win to become bowl eligible and this week’s game on Senior Day in Fayetteville is a perfect spot to back the Hogs. Not only does Ole Miss figure to be a bit flat — especially with a matchup against in-state rival Mississippi State on deck — but Rebels knocked off Arkansas 52-51 a season ago on the final play of the game. Given the spot and obvious motivation edge, I love getting the Hogs as an underdog here.
Check out our full Ole Miss vs Arkansas predictions
Navy +16 (-110) vs UCF
UCF has to be emotionally and physically spent after just finishing up its most important stretch of the season. Over the last 4 games, the Knights have wins over Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane, with a pair of those victories coming on the road and each win coming by just one possession. Now returning home, the AAC title game is within reach and it’s easy to see why the Knights could be looking past this Navy team. The Midshipmen are undefeated against the spread on the road this season, including covering multiple spreads as double digit underdogs to this point. Not only is Navy a hard team to prepare for, but the Midshipmen are 14th in the nation in EPA per rush on defense, which is the main driver of this Knights offense. Seeing as we’re getting nearly a 3-score head start here, I’ll happily take the points with Navy.
Be sure to get our college football Week 11 best bets – we have gone 19-11-1 over the past 10 weeks!
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