Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 11 of the college football season is behind us, and it was a slate that saw a couple of key upsets leave an impact on the College Football Playoff rankings. We’ve got another exciting slate on tap this week, featuring a number of important games across a myriad of conferences. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 12 schedule with my weekly best bets column. We had another winning week in last week’s column and the last month of the regular season has been kind to me in year’s past, so let’s hope this momentum finally translates into getting a 3-0 card this week!
We have a big time showdown in the SEC to headline this week’s crop of best bets, along with a handful of games across multiple conferences that I see value on, so let’s take a look at my college football picks for Week 12 on Saturday.
Tennessee Volunteers vs Georgia Bulldogs Under 49.5 (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 11. Playable to 47.5
Just last week, we got to the window with the under in the Georgia vs Ole Miss game, and there’s no reason not to keep backing the under in games involving the Bulldogs for the foreseeable future. I’ve been banging the drum about the shortcomings of this Georgia offense, and those struggles once again reared their ugly head against Ole Miss a week ago. And while I certainly lean toward Kirby Smart’s team picking up a much-needed victory at home, it’s difficult to lay double digits with the Bulldogs in this matchup. As we just saw in consecutive performances against Florida and Ole Miss over the past few weeks, this Georgia team have been uncharacteristically sloppy, don’t look as connected on both sides of the ball and has struggled mightily with slow starts this season. Now, the Bulldogs are playing in what has become their biggest game of the season with a spot in the College Football Playoff likely on the line against a Tennessee defense that is one of the best in the nation, sitting at 1st nationally in success rate allowed, 2nd in EPA margin and 3rd in net points per drive.
As for the Georgia defense, it’s abundantly clear that the Bulldogs aren’t anywhere near as dominant as what we’ve seen from them in seasons past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 10 in most of the meaningful advanced metrics, including success rate allowed, points per drive and third and 4th down success rate allowed. Conversely, the Tennessee offense has struggled mightily when stepping up in competition this season, particularly against the likes of Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma and even Kentucky a few weeks ago. Therefore, I fully expect the Bulldogs to bounce back after a poor showing against a more talented and well-coached Ole Miss offense. Lastly, both Smart and Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel should be expected to keep things close to the vest early on and avoid taking any big risks on offense, especially given the magnitude of this game. Let’s back the under while it’s still over a couple of key numbers in this price range.
Read our full Tennessee vs Georgia prediction
Kansas Jayhawks +3.5 vs BYU Cougars (-110)
Odds take from game preview published on November 11. Playable to +3.
It was a dispiriting first half of the season for Kansas, as the Jayhawks lost 5 straight games in as many weeks by a combined 28 points. In fact, four of those losses were by six points or fewer as Kansas continued to fall victim to untimely turnovers and late rallies from its opponents that resulted in one possession defeats. However, the tide appears to have turned over the past few weeks, as the Jayhawks have picked up impressive wins over Houston and Iowa State. With multiple 40+ point outbursts over the past month, there’s a reason to be optimistic about Lance Leipold’s offense heading into Saturday’s contest against BYU. Jalon Daniels has 9 total touchdowns to just 1 interception in this recent stretch, and there’s reason to be optimistic that the Kansas offense (17th in success rate, 9th in points per drive) will keep on rolling against a Cougars defense that has shown to be very reliant on turnovers this season. It’s also not a great spot for the Cougars following a memorable (and controversial) 1-point victory over Utah in the Holy War last Saturday, in which BYU came from behind to win on a field goal at the buzzer, with some turnover luck and help from the officials along the way.
This BYU team is much better than most thought it would be prior to the season, and I certainly respect that. With that said, this is far from one of the 12 best teams in the country and the Cougars are undeniably pretty fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season. After all, they’ve been outgained in 5 conference wins this season, and they enter Saturday’s contest with a whopping +9 turnover margin in Big 12 play. BYU’s offense checks in at 65th in success rate, 55th in Early Downs EPA and 97th in 3rd and 4th down success rate per College Football Insiders, so this isn’t exactly an elite offense on a consistent basis. Jake Retzlaff has some major turnover regression heading his way as well, as the Cougars quarterback had multiple interceptions dropped against Utah a week ago, to go along with 2 fumbles that were recovered by BYU in the fourth quarter. Given how much has gone wrong in close games for Kansas this season, don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks finally get a reversal of fortune and continue their late season push with an outright win in Provo on Saturday.
Read our full Kansas vs BYU prediction
Wisconsin Badgers +14.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-110)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 14.
It’s been no secret that the Oregon Ducks have the inside track to a Big Ten title and the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff in roughly a month’s time. All Oregon needs to do is keep winning, as style points don’t matter too much given the strength of the Ducks resume at this point. However, this week’s matchup against Wisconsin does present a bit of a challenge for Dan Lanning’s group. For starters, it’s not an ideal spot for the Ducks. In fact, this game marks the eighth straight game without a bye week for Oregon. This will also be a difficult game in terms of travel for Oregon, as the Ducks are migrating through multiple time zones for the third time over the past 6 weeks. Therefore, there is evidence to suggest that Wisconsin can keep this one within this number at home.
Oregon’s offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass, success rate and 3rd and 4th down success rate. However, Dillon Gabriel is going to be without his top target in Tez Johnson once again in this game, and running back Jordan James should be on a snap count after getting banged up a week ago. We just saw Will Stein’s offense look a bit out of sync for stretches of last week’s matchup against Maryland, and I’d expect the game plan to be pretty vanilla on Saturday, so as to not show too much on tape with the Big Ten title game drawing closer. Wisconsin’s defense has been strong defending the pass this season, so Oregon should consistently keep the ball on the ground and focus on killing the clock. And while the Badgers struggle to throw the ball downfield, they should be able to run the ball with fairly solid success in this game. Lastly, the Ducks have also made a bit of a habit of take their foot off the gas in the second halves of games against inferior competition, and that could be the case on Saturday once again, as Oregon has no real incentive to win by a significant margin in a tough spot. Back the Badgers to stay within striking distance.
Read our full Oregon vs Wisconsin prediction
San Jose State Spartans +14.5 vs Boise State Broncos (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +14.
At this point in the season, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the College Football Playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot (although Tulane and Army aren’t too far behind). Given their strong resume to this point, the Broncos just need to do is win, and they won’t exactly need style points in order to keep their ranking stable and march toward a conference title and berth in the playoff. That line of thinking is important when considering Saturday’s matchup against a San Jose State team that is setting up to be a bit of a “trap game” for the Broncos. After all, the Spartans are one of the better teams in the Mountain West and have likely become the most difficult opponent remaining on Boise State’s regular season schedule. In a game where it just needs to win and isn’t worried about margin or style points, Boise State should look to lean on all-world running back Ashton Jeanty early and often as he looks to add to his historic season against a San Jose State defense that is 86th in rushing success rate allowed.
The issue in this game for the Broncos shouldn’t be on offense, but rather a defense that is 81st in points per drive, 80th in 3rd and 4th down defense and outside the top 100 in tackling. Just like week, the Broncos secondary allowed some explosive plays to Nevada’s below average passing offense, a consistent theme this season when any Boise State opponent has time to throw. With that in mind, San Jose State’s rock solid passing attack should hit on a couple of big plays, as quarterback Walker Eget is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 395 yards and a touchdown against Oregon State in Corvallis a week ago. However, the real star on this Spartans team is wide receiver Nick Nash, who is easily one of the best players in the country that nobody talks about on a national level. Nash has a whopping 13 touchdowns on the season and is coming off a 6-reception, 161 yard performance in that victory over Oregon State. Even if the Spartans defense can’t hold down Jeanty and the Boise State offense, this is still a game where the backdoor should be wide open late in the 4th quarter. Let’s take the Spartans to keep things within a couple of scores at home on Saturday.
Read our full Boise State vs San Jose State prediction
